Fermi Paradox (Part 7) - The Great Filter
In relation to Robert Heinlein's plea for unified human resolve, via global militarization, I was thinking of a Fermi Paradox that may be a encompassing presage for the human race. So, for a recap of what the Fermi Paradox hypothesis entails; it is the assertion that if there are millions of stars and accompanying planets. Where is the life? More specifically, where are the advanced alien lifeforms? None seem to be about. Thus enters The Great Filter theory hypothesized by Nick Bostrom, Faculty of Philosophy, Oxford University, that all civilizations (on the march to their technologically advance stages) reach a point where they hit the extinction wall - a cataclysmic event that ends their time-line. So this Fermi Paradox sets out the open suggestion (as far as answering our luck, good or bad.), that The Great Filter may have already occurred, it happened earlier, namely the Cretaceous–Paleogene extinction event that killed off the dinosaurs and so far we have been spared. Somehow we may sneak through into the next stage of our advancement without a super massive gamma wave blast destroying the earth, or a meteorite the size of a continent slamming into us. Bostrom, either way, says our chances, if The Great Filter is an answer for the Fermi Paradox, rely on the hope that we do not find relics (fossils) of primitive alien life on Mars. As that would be an Omen, in his opinion, which will seal our cosmic fate.
"...So where is the Great Filter? Behind us, or not behind us? If the Great Filter is ahead of us, we have still to confront it. If it is true that almost all intelligent species go extinct before they master the technology for space colonization, then we must expect that our own species, too, will go extinct before reaching technological maturity, since we have no reason to think that we will be any luckier than most other species at our stage of development. If the Great Filter is ahead of us, we must relinquish all hope of ever colonizing the galaxy; and we must fear that our 7 adventure will end soon, or at any rate, prematurely. Therefore, we better hope that the Great Filter is behind us. What has all this got to do with finding life on Mars? Consider the implications of discovering that life had evolved independently on Mars (or some other planet in our solar system). That discovery would suggest that the emergence of life is not a very improbable event. If it happened independently twice here in our own back yard, it must surely have happened millions times across the galaxy. This would mean that the Great Filter is less likely to occur in the early life of planets and is therefore more likely still to come.
If we discovered some very simple life forms on Mars in its soil or under the ice at the polar caps, it would show that the Great Filter must exist somewhere after that period in evolution. This would be disturbing, but we might still hope that the Great Filter was located in our past. If we discovered a more advanced life ‐ form, such as some kind of multi ‐ cellular organism, that would eliminate a much larger stretch of potential locations where the Great Filter could be. The effect would be to shift the probability more strongly to the hypothesis that the Great Filter is ahead of us, not behind us. And if we discovered the fossils of some very complex life form, such as of some vertebrate ‐ like creature, we would have to conclude that the probability is very great that the bulk of the Great Filter is ahead of us. Such a discovery would be a crushing blow. It would be by far the worst news ever printed on a newspaper cover. Yet most people reading the about the discovery would be thrilled. They would not understand the implications. If the Great Filter is not behind us, it is ahead of us.
So this is why I’m hoping that our space probes will discover dead rocks and lifeless sands on Mars, on Jupiter’s moon Europa, and everywhere else our astronomers look. It would keep alive the hope for a great future for humanity..."
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