Posts

Showing posts with the label FX
Show all
Image

Bitcoin falls over 15% from its 12th April highs of $71000, as embedded inflation, and short end bond yields jump. Iran's attack on Israel didn't help either. Liquidity tightening will knock BTC lower.

Post a Comment
Image

Markets are grossly underpricing global stagflation. The Fed, according to CME FedWatch, has priced in a 99% chance of no hike for September 2023. Your Uber driver would know more about the economy than any 'pudit' waffling about 'deflation' and a 'softlanding'

Post a Comment
Image

Australian dollar (AUD) is falling towards its 2008 and 2020 lows as China's bond contagion is probably already occurring. China bailing out massively indebted property companies will not solve their rising unemployment rate and debt crisis. All eyes on Australian bonds and AUD.

Post a Comment
Image

Self explanatory chart: Japanese YEN and Month on Month inflation (Japan).

Post a Comment
Image

self explanatory charts of BITCOIN (btc) futures. Highly unlikely that BTC will ever hit 60K in its foreseeable future. As a risk catalyst, it is neither a safe haven nor a store of value. If an armed conflict arises with China. BTC could go to zero.

Post a Comment
Image

Jobless claims jump to 261K, estimates were for 232K rise. Unemployment may not set off deflation, inflation is already imbedded at multi decade highs. Markets are too locked into habitual Central Bank stimulus. May end up being disappointed.

Post a Comment
Image

Australian inflation runs hot for April 2023 at 6.8% (estimates of 6.4%). Chinese manufacturing is spluttering out. The RBA may hit a larger rate hike at their next meeting.

Post a Comment
Image

*UPDATE* The Japanese YEN and Australian dollar (AUD) are now in freefall. With the YEN returning back to its 15 year lows. On the back of a China slowdown, which may turn into a recession. Food inflation is still sticky. *Update: RBA raises rate/s to 0.25% after April pause. AUD rallies. Central Banks return to tightening bias*

Post a Comment
Image

Gold and the oil price are now showing signs of an inflation and doomsday hedge, as inflation remains sticky at 12 year highs, unemployment could spike with the oil price. Which is stagflation. Central Banks rate pauses and cuts would only exasperate the problem.

Post a Comment
Image

BITCOIN liquidates on the back of SVB Financial Group collapse and possible Venture Capitalist wipeout. Eyes on the NASDAQ and signs of a bailout. Will the Fed absorb losses or the U.S government? May cause major distortions in the bond markets.

Post a Comment
Image

The Federal Reserve may increase interest rates and lift their terminal rate to a higher level. Japan and the U.K. are already in a currency crisis. Could Australia be next? As a divergence between dovish Central Banks and a hawkish Fed, may set off a wave of Foreign Exchange inflation.

Post a Comment
Image

Bitcoin the new safe haven? Replacing the Japanese YEN and British Pound as central banks scramble to deal with global stagflation.

Post a Comment
Image

Bank of England throws in the towel, rather than triggering interest rates, buys long dated gilts, prints money to mess with the short end of the bond market. Stocks and bonds all go bid, alongside the oil price. Total backfire. Central Bank lesson of how 'yield control' with inflation is dangerous.

Post a Comment
Image

U.K. is already in a currency crisis. The Sterling has collapsed to its lowest level ever against the U.S. dollar.

Post a Comment
Image

Bank of Japan intervenes for the first time in 24 years to shore up the collapsing YEN. The rally was token with the YEN still at two decade lows.

Post a Comment
Image

The Pound Sterling is already in a currency crisis. The U.K. maybe the first Western country to be hit hard by stagflation and a debt storm.

Post a Comment
Image

The Euro and Japanese Yen are now at 20 year lows against the U.S. Dollar, which is showing up as both an energy and currency crisis for the Euro zone and Japan. The Fed could trigger a 0.75% interest rate rise at their next meeting and leave rates close to 3% before the Northern Hemisphere winter.

Post a Comment
Image

Russian Rouble rallies, seen as the best preforming currency after its 'sanctions' crash March 2022. Are sanctions on Russia working? Outflows and Russian safe havens could be Czechoslovakia and Hungary. Putin could still be holding cards on Oil and Gas. Germany may fold.

Post a Comment
Image

ARE WE HEADING FOR A STOCK MARKET CRASH? (Cont)

Post a Comment
Image

The Japanese YEN is about to lose its safe haven appeal, as oil inflation will hit Japan like a freight train. Could it lead to an economic crisis?

Post a Comment