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Markets are grossly underpricing global stagflation. The Fed, according to CME FedWatch, has priced in a 99% chance of no hike for September 2023. Your Uber driver would know more about the economy than any 'pudit' waffling about 'deflation' and a 'softlanding'

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The Fed has activated Quantitive Easing via their discount lending window for banks. Which now stands at $152 billion in less than a week, swelling the Fed's balance sheet to just under $300 Billion. The Fed is attempting to play both sides of the coin with QE and rate increases. Which may lead to further distortion in safe havens flows and bond markets.

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The Federal Reserve may increase interest rates and lift their terminal rate to a higher level. Japan and the U.K. are already in a currency crisis. Could Australia be next? As a divergence between dovish Central Banks and a hawkish Fed, may set off a wave of Foreign Exchange inflation.

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U.S. employment surges to its highest in 20+ years, lead by the service sector despite job losses in technology. Very evident of services driving up inflation. Money supply is still at multidecade highs as personal saving rates have collapsed to their 18 yr lows.

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Job losses are starting to pick up in the Tech sector on par with 2020 lay offs. The inflation eye of the storm is about to pass and stagflation still looks likely for 2023. As energy markets begin to tighten once again.

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The Federal Reserve is very close to throwing in the towel (again), as it has done a minimal job in reigning in inflation. Its balance sheet remains at 8 Trillion. U.S. Dollar selling could turn into capitulation if all Central Banks begin one by one throwing in the towel. IS the hope on for a milder Northern Hemisphere winter re: peak inflation?

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S&P 500 is now above the Powell 'Put' (July 26th) as the Fed has decided to slow down its rate hikes, with its fight with inflation which is still at 40 year highs. Confusion and hope is guiding market expectations.

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Will the Fed trigger the big one at 1.00%+ after their September meeting? The July 27th Powell "Put" is holding, yet markets have mispriced a U.S. deflationary recession. Stagflation could already be here, with is a massive build up of supply issues dating back to 2019. Calamity ahead.

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Caught the Copper rally as the market shifts (again) from recession to stagflation trades. Central Banks are beginning to follow suit to the Fed's inactions that they have come to end of higher rates to suppress inflation, in lieu of a global slowdown. The high NFP number changed all that. America's CPI cold be heading towards 10% . Maybe it is time to price in a 1.00% rate hike by the Fed.

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