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Showing posts with the label reflation

NASDAQ jumps on a reflation/inflation trade from NVIDIA's "AI" and its $10 million in sales. market is mispricing Chinese deflation, rather china will set off another supply tech chain crunch ala 2020. Stock rally's in tech is testment to this. How long can it hold?

Is the Oil price showing signs of a global recession looming?

Reflation trade is spluttering out. Tech sector is bid on price increases, Chip shortage maybe ending till the next Taiwan drought. 10 YR collapsed on the back of the ECB rate increase. OIL and USD are slightly bid. stocks appeared topped out.

Reflation trade is back on, via the market pricing out a 1.00% hike from the FED and a recession. So is it stagflation and a hiring boom collapse? A $100 oil price will crimp any major rallies.

Australian Central bank increases interest rates to 0.85% with a 0.50% rate hike. The AUD sells as the U.S. Dollar gains bids, the U.S rate is at 1.00%. Energy/Food inflation is now chronic, seeping into everything. Will the Fed drop the big one at their June meeting?

China begins to ease COVID-19 restrictions, using the reflation/stimulus trade playbook, expect prices to blast through the roof for Copper, Oil, Wheat and Natural Gas.

Caught the reflation trade for the NASDAQ, bids from 12222 to 12767: before the sh*storm is about to hit. Oil is bid at $116 and 10 yr yield is about to head back to 3%. Bull trap from hell on its way.

NASDAQ March/April/May 2022 bear market and its correlation with the oil price/10 YR yield.

Markets still have a 9 Trillion dollar underwrite via the Federal Reserve balance sheet, reflation trade is still on, when it's not. US. Dollar and Yield correlation to Equity prices is becoming narrower play by the day.