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Showing posts with the label futures

Trump 2.0 playing the extreme paleolibertarian 'tariffs on everybody works on paper, maybe a disaster in reality' to remove America from global trade markets, and return all industries back to America lunacy, slams 25% import tariffs on Mexico and Canada and 10% on China.

S&P 500 closes at all times highs. Surges after slump, when Fed chairman Jerome Powell rules out rate cuts, rises on the back rising unemployment in the U.S. I can't see a recession or deflation until the oil price is under $50, stagflation is still on the cards.

Self explanatory chart of the S&P 500 futures, from the last quarter. Market has priced out war and a sticky oil price and gone with CPI deflationary prints, Federal Reserve cutting/pausing rates and the surging tech sector high on an "AI" chip war revving up. Also to note, is the $8 Trillion, of Fed 'pandemic stimulus' that was to the banks, parked in cash and money market funds. *link in post*

Tesla share price drops over 3%, as the U.S. car industry begins to set in an historic car strike. Musk shoots his mouth off. May send Tesla lower.

Wheat futures bid on the possibility that the Black Sea Grain deal may not be renewed. Betting on Turkey's President Tayyip Erdogan to appease Russian demands, maybe a market misprice. Wheat price looks supported for further gains.

Wheat futures return to their April 2021 highs before the price went parabolic re: Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Any political destabilization in Russia may have a drastic spill over effect on wheat and grain prices.

Oil price stays fairly supported as the market prices in a .25% rate hike by the Fed. Energy and food inflation is beginning to creep up in 2023. Will the Fed pause?

2022 'Explosive cyclogenesis' storm has hit America. Wheat futures have gone bid. Prices may spike if the storm and severe weather continues into January 2023

Volatility, confusion and Chaos. Is inflation being mispriced on China deflation blips? With inflation gauges showing up as volatile, energy and Wheat/food prices are all heading back up again. Inflation and stagflation maybe becoming entrenched.

Wheat futures from March 2021 to June 2022. Showing June harvests and its price correlation. Note the sell off in June 2022 as funds covered short positions. Price remains bid on Russian blockades of Ukrainian wheat exports.