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Recession on and Stagflation off 2022 trades have returned, as the market tries to gauge the Fed's next move. The likelihood of rates surpassing 5% in the U.S. is more of a reality than not, even if unemployment begins to tick up in 2023.

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adp employment figures show the smallest gain since the so called pandemic recovery, at 128K added jobs. The market is confused and the Fed is confusing the market even further whether they can reduce their 9 Trillion $ balance sheet and trigger rates over 2% in tackling the worst in inflation in over 40 years. Will they allow the U.S. Dollar to strengthen? Or markets to rally?

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