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Self explanatory chart/s: Bitcoin (BTC) passes through its 60K price resistance on the back of Black Rock (Fund manager) 'BITCOIN ETF' flooding the Crypto ETF markets at $3.3 Billion. TEch firms and Silicon Valley Heavy weights jump on board. BTC is at a two year high, closing in on 64K.

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Self Explantory chart: Indexes rise, with the S&P now clearing its 5000 resistance, trading above 5K. Retail spending collapses to 0.8% in January 2024 following the sharp decline in December 2023 at 0.5%. Are the majority of working Americas tightening pursestrings or cannot compete with rising prices? Market is transfixed on rate cuts in MAy 2024. Reiterate, not with the oil price bid over 75. Can we avoid stagflation in 2024?

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CPI blows out at 3.1% with expectations for a 2.9% print. Stock markets drop 1%. USD dollar and oil are bid.

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The oil price remains bid over $75, OPEC cuts and broader Middle Eastern war may push the price to $80. MArkets are overstretching expectations that rates will be cut in 2024 on a China/U.S. slowdown. Not with unemployment rates at all time lows and higher energy prices. Coffee futures are bid, Brazil is suffering from the worst drought in history. Climate Change should be priced into markets.

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NASDAQ rallies to its September 2023 highs on the back on the Federal Reserve pausing rate hikes for 2023.

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Has the Federal Reserve got it right on inflation? It doesn't seem that way.

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End year Inflation expectations are rising in tandem with the 10 YR yield, which is shy away from 5%. Central banks will most likely deliver rate increase/s year end (update 1)

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Markets are grossly underpricing global stagflation. The Fed, according to CME FedWatch, has priced in a 99% chance of no hike for September 2023. Your Uber driver would know more about the economy than any 'pudit' waffling about 'deflation' and a 'softlanding'

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Tesla share price drops over 3%, as the U.S. car industry begins to set in an historic car strike. Musk shoots his mouth off. May send Tesla lower.

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U.S. Consumer price index (CPI) blows out in August 2023 to 3.7% from 3.6%, prior month. 10 YR yield resistance is at 4.3%, which is at 2023 highs. The bond market is screaming for a rate hike from the Fed, as inflation has deeply imbedded itself into the American economy. NASDAQ bids are causing blindsided greed. Stock market has lost touch with reality.

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NADAQ futures sell off -2% on rising 10 YR bond yields. Inflation is still among us, Central Banks deliver Hawkish rhetoric. Nvidia gets knocked off its perch.

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China shuts down its media re: China's ailing economy, oil falls from its August highs looking to settle at $78 a barrel. U.S. oil stockpiles have all but collapsed, as the Biden administration continues exporting oil. U.S. pump prices are at all time highs. Stagflation call for 2023 and 2024 remains.

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China's slowdown could be the 'one' this time, Chinese authorities stop reporting youth unemployment numbers. Eerily similar to when China underreported and stopped reporting COVID infections. Pointing to a severe recession for the Chinese economy. Australia will take a massive hit, all eyes on the AUD and Aust bonds.

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Fitch downgrade of U.S. debt strips off their AAA rating, now AA+. Growth/Spec stocks sell off, 2% 10 YR Yield and USD rally. The 10 YR yield is now at 4% before the SVB bailout. U.S. oil stocks are at the lowest in history, will eventually show up in the oil price.

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Australia's June CPI prints at 5.60% from 6.83%, but still shows Australian consumers are being taxed out by higher food/housing/rents. Recession on the horizon? RBA may increase rates at their next meeting, on higher energy prices.

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Jobless claims jump to 261K, estimates were for 232K rise. Unemployment may not set off deflation, inflation is already imbedded at multi decade highs. Markets are too locked into habitual Central Bank stimulus. May end up being disappointed.

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Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey's right wing populist leader is reelected, the LIRA (TRY) drops to all time lows. Erdoğan vows to continue cutting rates while Turkey faces the worst inflation in over 20 years. A IMF bailout of Turkey cannot be ruled out. The Turkish economy has already collapsed.

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U.S. PCE RISES IN APRIL to 4.8%. RATES SHOULD BE ABOVE 6% BY NOW. THE 10 YR YIELD IS TELLING OF THE INDICIVENESS OF THE Federal Reserve.

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Germany falls into recession. Growth began to stagnate May 2022 and April 2023 with negative growth Q1 2023, while inflation remains at multidecade highs. The European Union is facing stagflation for 2023.

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S&P 500 futures are looking stretched. The U.S. government most likely will not default on its debt, yet confidence in the market is being tested. Liquidity is not as tight as it could be.

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