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The nasdaq rises over 2000 points, as on/off Trump with his, and other paleolibertarian/conservative/Fascist crazy economic polcies. Markets resume their inflationary ascend. Everything goes bid. Once again, no recession just a grinding stagflation with a fool at the helm. China gets a 90 day all-out-war tarrif freeze.
Trump's global trade war begins. China imposes 35% tariffs on US imports. Maybe an all out trade war was inevitable, Trump just set it off. NASDAQ, Dow fall 5%, overall loses at 17%, 10% (3months) 3%, 10% shy of a bear market. No recession, payrolls still booming, stagflation looming. VIX close to 2020 pandemic levels.
NAsdaq nears a 10% correction, with a distinct possibility that the tech heavy index could end up in a bear market, due mostly to Trump's tariffs and the U.S. growth slowing down at a rapid rate, which doesn't mean inflation has abated. Recent reuters poll indicates that inflation will return near term to the American economy.
Self explanatory chart: NASDAQ is close to falling into a bear market, as Trump Fascist/isolationist economic policies of Trade war on everyone, are reginting inflation/stagflation fears. With the U.S. probably already experiencing stagflation lite. USD sells off, swiss franc and yen are bid, oil remains collapsed on Trump handing Putin a pyrrhic victory over Europe.
U.S. non-farm payrolls came in at 245,000 jobs for September 2024 The unemployment rate falls to 4.1%. America is not in a recession, nor facing any deflation. The Fed's jumbo 0.50% rate cut was unnecessary, energy and food prices are not coming down. The conflict between Iran and Israel could lead to an oil shock, despite Biden stockpiling oil.
NASDAQ falls 5.76% over two days, although this is not at a crash, be wary. Speculation in the tech sector is rampant, and has been holding up global indices with expectations of a crypto/AI dominance. Further unwinding could be on the cards, noting that the headwinds for the global economy are numerous in consecutive beatdowns.
Major indices are now showing signs of risk aversion, which we haven't seen since the Iran/Israel skirmish in April 2024. The Fed seems dead set on a rate cut for September, before the U.S. elections in November. Which markets have this already priced in, thus messy profit taking could turn into capitulation as the China trade war heats up, and all those hidden surprises you won't see coming. (update 1)
