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Showing posts with the label rates

S&P 500 drops 0.42% on U.S. Bank downgrades and Chinese 'deflation'. Remains overbought at 4480.

Australian inflation runs hot for April 2023 at 6.8% (estimates of 6.4%). Chinese manufacturing is spluttering out. The RBA may hit a larger rate hike at their next meeting.

Gold and the oil price are now showing signs of an inflation and doomsday hedge, as inflation remains sticky at 12 year highs, unemployment could spike with the oil price. Which is stagflation. Central Banks rate pauses and cuts would only exasperate the problem.

Will the Fed trigger the big one at 1.00%+ after their September meeting? The July 27th Powell "Put" is holding, yet markets have mispriced a U.S. deflationary recession. Stagflation could already be here, with is a massive build up of supply issues dating back to 2019. Calamity ahead.

Markets are still rallying off the Powell "Put". Caught between recession and stagflation confusion, on hope of a recession as the Fed won't take rates over 3% and maintain their 8+ Trillion $ balance sheet. U.S. industrial production is booming and GDP growth is slowing = stagnation. Inflation is sucking dry personal expenditure.

Biden's SPR release has dropped energy inflation (slightly) in the U.S. Food and natural gas/electricity are still spiking. Markets are now rallying above the "Powell Put" on the Fed's denial and confusion.

Bitcoin could completely crash. In Q2 Tesla sold off 75% of its holdings, one of the main buyers at $1.5 billion, the company took a hit. U.S. Dollar strength and interest rate hikes, the era of speculation is over.

Reflation trade is spluttering out. Tech sector is bid on price increases, Chip shortage maybe ending till the next Taiwan drought. 10 YR collapsed on the back of the ECB rate increase. OIL and USD are slightly bid. stocks appeared topped out.

YEN and BITCOIN are collapsing, the era of certain safe havens and E-coins have come to an end. Stagflation and interest rates, while Japan is stuck at negative 10% rate. The country could be priced out of existence, setting off a new Asian currency crisis.

Australian Dollar has collapsed through its price supports, I caught the two day trade. The Federal Reserve may trigger a 0.75% increase at their June meeting. Inflation is now out of control. A Strong U.S. Dollar will sink Asian and Oceanic currencies. May lead to a Asian/Australian currency crisis.

Australian Dollar is overbought, China PMI is now in contraction with Shanghai fully locked down re: COVID out of control and low vaccine rates amongst the elderly. U.S rates now overshooting Australia's cash rate.

CPI blows out, most rise in Food and Energy since 1981. A stagflation energy and food crisis beatdown on the boil. Will Central Banks begin to lift rates to be on par with 1970's and 1980's inflation?