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Australia's June CPI prints at 5.60% from 6.83%, but still shows Australian consumers are being taxed out by higher food/housing/rents. Recession on the horizon? RBA may increase rates at their next meeting, on higher energy prices.

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Bitcoin maintains rally after the Fed's bond bailout of crypto/disruptive tech/start ups. Credit Suisse writes-down $17 Billion of bonds at zero worth, underwritten by the Swiss National Bank. Bond markets are showing 1987 and 2008 turmoil with inflation on top.

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Recession on and Stagflation off 2022 trades have returned, as the market tries to gauge the Fed's next move. The likelihood of rates surpassing 5% in the U.S. is more of a reality than not, even if unemployment begins to tick up in 2023.

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Markets have mispriced a reflation trade once more, as Central Banks begin to throw in the towel on taming inflation. Oil and commodities prices begin their incline back to early 2022 levels. Markets still can't read stagflation.

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Powell 'Put' about to be breached. Labor supply is outstripping demand, U.S. inflation is now imbedded into the economy which is running on the spot. Going nowhere. Fed may not wait for other Central Banks to get on board. A 1.00% rate rise is on the cards.

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Manufacturing in the U.S. is spiking, oil price is bid. GDP is falling. Markets are over staked with information and economic gauges. Feels chaotic, although still underwritten by the Federal Reserve. Rates are far too low to combat inflation. England is a good example, with inflation now runaway at 10%.

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Biden's SPR release has dropped energy inflation (slightly) in the U.S. Food and natural gas/electricity are still spiking. Markets are now rallying above the "Powell Put" on the Fed's denial and confusion.

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Amidst imbedded inflation. Why is Wall Street and investment banks calling a recession in 2022/2023?

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Caught the Copper rally as the market shifts (again) from recession to stagflation trades. Central Banks are beginning to follow suit to the Fed's inactions that they have come to end of higher rates to suppress inflation, in lieu of a global slowdown. The high NFP number changed all that. America's CPI cold be heading towards 10% . Maybe it is time to price in a 1.00% rate hike by the Fed.

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The Federal Reserve throws in the towel, triggers an expected rate 0.75% and downplays everything. Including a recession and stagflation, sends the USD down, oil rallies. Inflation back on.

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The 2 yr and 10 yr bonds have inverted. A recession looming or market confusion over inflation? Either way the VIX rising is showing up as market instability.

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Oil is not showing any recessionary price markers in 2022, remains bid. 2020 was a recession when oil when into sub zero prices. Caught the oil swing trade from 106 to 108.

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STAGFLATION PRIMER (1). Dr Copper, Oil price and consumer inflation. At the crossroads of a global recession with inflation on top.

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