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CPI blows out at 3.1% with expectations for a 2.9% print. Stock markets drop 1%. USD dollar and oil are bid.

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The oil price remains bid over $75, OPEC cuts and broader Middle Eastern war may push the price to $80. MArkets are overstretching expectations that rates will be cut in 2024 on a China/U.S. slowdown. Not with unemployment rates at all time lows and higher energy prices. Coffee futures are bid, Brazil is suffering from the worst drought in history. Climate Change should be priced into markets.

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*UPDATE* The Japanese YEN and Australian dollar (AUD) are now in freefall. With the YEN returning back to its 15 year lows. On the back of a China slowdown, which may turn into a recession. Food inflation is still sticky. *Update: RBA raises rate/s to 0.25% after April pause. AUD rallies. Central Banks return to tightening bias*

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U.S. employment surges to its highest in 20+ years, lead by the service sector despite job losses in technology. Very evident of services driving up inflation. Money supply is still at multidecade highs as personal saving rates have collapsed to their 18 yr lows.

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S&P 500 is now above the Powell 'Put' (July 26th) as the Fed has decided to slow down its rate hikes, with its fight with inflation which is still at 40 year highs. Confusion and hope is guiding market expectations.

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Musk's brutal acquisition of Twitter is showing up in Tesla. Could be evident that Twitter is leaking rapidly with loss of revenue. 50% of the workforce has been cut that also could be a wider trend of the tech sector begging mass layoffs. This is essentially a stagflation primer as inflation imbeds and unemployment grows.

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The 10 YR BOND (U.S.) and 10 YR GILT (U.K.) reach 16 year highs. U.K. financial crisis is heating up dragging U.S. yields.

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Oil inflation is about to swing back. Biden's SPR failure and restocking of tight oil supplies, Iran nuke deal has "frozen" plus Europe's energy price caps will blow out natural gas prices ala pressure on electrical usage, grids failures and blackouts etc.

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The Euro and Japanese Yen are now at 20 year lows against the U.S. Dollar, which is showing up as both an energy and currency crisis for the Euro zone and Japan. The Fed could trigger a 0.75% interest rate rise at their next meeting and leave rates close to 3% before the Northern Hemisphere winter.

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Caught the Copper rally as the market shifts (again) from recession to stagflation trades. Central Banks are beginning to follow suit to the Fed's inactions that they have come to end of higher rates to suppress inflation, in lieu of a global slowdown. The high NFP number changed all that. America's CPI cold be heading towards 10% . Maybe it is time to price in a 1.00% rate hike by the Fed.

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Bitcoin could completely crash. In Q2 Tesla sold off 75% of its holdings, one of the main buyers at $1.5 billion, the company took a hit. U.S. Dollar strength and interest rate hikes, the era of speculation is over.

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adp employment figures show the smallest gain since the so called pandemic recovery, at 128K added jobs. The market is confused and the Fed is confusing the market even further whether they can reduce their 9 Trillion $ balance sheet and trigger rates over 2% in tackling the worst in inflation in over 40 years. Will they allow the U.S. Dollar to strengthen? Or markets to rally?

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