Posts
Do you want a $8.55 (U.S.) cup of coffee with your stagflation/Trump trade war with everyone economic chaos? Can't really just blame Trump's tariff madness (although a factor), climate change has everything to do with COffee prices going upward. A precursor to food prices. Shame, Central Banks are still calling deflation as a threat. Who will blow out the global economy first? (part 7)
While central Banks globally are now forced to cut rates, due to the Federal Reserve's jumbo cut of 0.50%, to make their currencies competitive v's the USD. Oil jumps on geopolitical concerns, namely the looming war between Israel and Lebanon. An oil shock cannot be ruled out. Stagflation could hit commodity export countries first.
Oil futures are trading above $83 per barrel on Israel's looming invasion of Lebanon. If the oil price sits above $90 for an extended period of time, more than a month. Stagflation will be locked into the global economy. A wider conflict in the middle east would be Iran and the U.S. directly in combat
Self Explantory chart: Indexes rise, with the S&P now clearing its 5000 resistance, trading above 5K. Retail spending collapses to 0.8% in January 2024 following the sharp decline in December 2023 at 0.5%. Are the majority of working Americas tightening pursestrings or cannot compete with rising prices? Market is transfixed on rate cuts in MAy 2024. Reiterate, not with the oil price bid over 75. Can we avoid stagflation in 2024?
self explanatory chart: Coffee futures are now at $1.91 per pound. A two year high (September 2021), when the coffee price began its meteoric rise to over $2.52, in tandem with global inflation spiking. Brazil drought in 2023 and dry conditions start of 2024 are leading to the price increases. Also note shipping issues re: Red Sea attacks. Inflation maybe coming back. *Bonus chart Corn/Soy*
