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The Volatility index (VIX spikes) as 'Peacemaker', deal maker (and breaker), the everyday man's Facist Donald Trump, declares economic war on China, via Iran oil sales, whilst economic war 'threats' on his democratic lead states in the U.S. threatening mass government worker layoffs, a funding over the U.S. government shutdown
The Volatility index (VIX) is 35% nearer to the levels seen during the COVID-19 pandemic, when it peaked at 85% and closed at 53%. Current is high is 60% and its close is 53%, seen normally as a risk indicator of a financial contagion/pandemic and/or credit risk, now hedging for a global trade war. The Fed dare not frantically start cutting rates in lieu of its major indicator, the stock market, when U.S. is at full employment
Volatility index (VIX) spikes to its highest level in Three months, as Gold also edges towards record highs, but the U.S. Dollar sinks. US Services Sector (ISM) falls close to contraction territory in March 2025 at 50, with rising costs and surging layoffs/employment. What was hidden as embedded inflation (before Trump's tariffs), may start to reveal itself again as Stagflation.
Major indices are now showing signs of risk aversion, which we haven't seen since the Iran/Israel skirmish in April 2024. The Fed seems dead set on a rate cut for September, before the U.S. elections in November. Which markets have this already priced in, thus messy profit taking could turn into capitulation as the China trade war heats up, and all those hidden surprises you won't see coming. (update 1)
