Posts

Showing posts with the label deflation
Show all
Image

NASDAQ blows out to all time highs, while China falls into a deep recession. Bitcoin and Crypto remain a 'BlackRock' underwrite (stuck at 60K+) hedge for the pensions funds and U.S. president's, the oil price is caught between a China slowdown and a looming Iran/Israel war. Short end bond yields are up, as inflation appears to be returning. Did it ever go away?

Post a Comment
Image

Markets are pricing in 'hopium' via the Fed for a 50 basis point cut on 18th September 2024 before the U.S. elections. Never mind 'sticky' U.S. inflation via the CPI and PPI.

Post a Comment
Image

nASDAQ collapses over 2%, on weaker ISM PMI readings from Chinese and U.S. economic gauges. Crude sells off, but holds below $77 on any retaliatory strike by Iran on Israel.

Post a Comment
Image

Self explanatory chart/s: Are we amidst a tech sector bubble lead by AI mania? 1st chart via Kamadar, showing Tech companies are trying to close in on the $2 Trillion market cap. 2nd Chart the NASDAQ 100 via my analysis, showing the rise of the Tech sector after the SVB bailout in March 2023

Post a Comment
Image

Self Explantory chart: Indexes rise, with the S&P now clearing its 5000 resistance, trading above 5K. Retail spending collapses to 0.8% in January 2024 following the sharp decline in December 2023 at 0.5%. Are the majority of working Americas tightening pursestrings or cannot compete with rising prices? Market is transfixed on rate cuts in MAy 2024. Reiterate, not with the oil price bid over 75. Can we avoid stagflation in 2024?

Post a Comment
Image

CPI blows out at 3.1% with expectations for a 2.9% print. Stock markets drop 1%. USD dollar and oil are bid.

Post a Comment
Image

U.S. CPI comes in at 3.4% December 2023, as opposed to November at 3.1%. Costs rose across the board sans a slight drop in energy. The NASDAQ dropped then popped on the news, forming a possible bull trap near or at 17000.

Post a Comment
Image

Self explanatory chart: The Fed's gift to the markets. They won the inflation fight, with close to full employment, collapsing inflation, a soft landing, no recession. No dark clouds on the horizon. Bull market in tact. The old normal is maintained. Dow passes 37k, first time in history.

Post a Comment
Image

Self explanatory chart: West Texas Intermediate (WTI). China deflation/recession/financial crisis versus a full blown war in the middle east.

Post a Comment
Image

Has the Federal Reserve got it right on inflation? It doesn't seem that way.

Post a Comment
Image

The s&p 500 has rallied 3% since the Israel/Hamas war. On hope that inflation and a war in the middle east can be "contained". Be wary of wishful thinking.

Post a Comment
Image

Oil crashes down over 8% from its $94 highs. Hedge funds cut leveraged positions in a messy sell off.

Post a Comment
Image

NASDAQ falls close to 10%, as it begins to enter a bear market. Oil is bid over $90 as governments globally have run out of options on inflation. Central Banks will return to their tightening bias end of 2023.

Post a Comment
Image

Markets are grossly underpricing global stagflation. The Fed, according to CME FedWatch, has priced in a 99% chance of no hike for September 2023. Your Uber driver would know more about the economy than any 'pudit' waffling about 'deflation' and a 'softlanding'

Post a Comment
Image

Self explanatory chart: Markets are showing all out confusion via the deflation and inflation scenarios. When Stagflation was just delayed ala massive oil releases and paradoxically the 2023 bank bailouts. Oil is reaching its $94 resistance a 12 month high. Blowing away Central Bank so called interest rate hikes of 2022 and 2023. The Fed should have been over 6% by now. Stagflation denial won't cut the mustard.

Post a Comment
Image

Gold is holding above $1961 an ounce, with the psychological $2000 within reach. All eyes on China, as the behemoth country begins to splutter into a messy recession. Don't expect exported deflation to the West, expect stagflation.

Post a Comment
Image

Crude prices are now sitting comfortably above $83 pb, a perfect storm brewing for energy costs, extreme weather, collapsed oil stocks in U.s. and geopolitical: Russia/China/middle east. Russian natural gas being stockpiled by the U.K., like no tomorrow.

Post a Comment
Image

Energy prices spike as Natural gas rallies over 3% as industrial action at Australian gas facilities begins, oil turns bid at $81. SUch is the perils of price controls, particularly on Nat Gas. U.S. crude inventories are still dropping to their historic lows.

Post a Comment
Image

NASDAQ jumps on a reflation/inflation trade from NVIDIA's "AI" and its $10 million in sales. market is mispricing Chinese deflation, rather china will set off another supply tech chain crunch ala 2020. Stock rally's in tech is testment to this. How long can it hold?

Post a Comment
Image

Japan is a whisper away from a fall blown currency crisis. Will the Bank of Japan intervene for the 2nd time in 22 years? A china 'crash' will throw Japan's bond market and borrowing costs into turmoil.

Post a Comment