Moon race redux and Space internet: All hype or misaligned ambitions?

(Image: An artist's impression of Space junk surrounding the Earth.  NASA)

As the issue of Low Earth Orbit satellite (LEO) constellations has now become a front and center concern for astronomy, that started when SpaceX's August 2020 launch guided six hundred small satellites known as Starlink into Earth's LEO, further cluttering the night skies with an already junk fest of orbiting satellites.  An ambitious, yet rather, in the scope of dominating the new Space Race, useless idea to have direct internet connection via micro satellites, essentially becoming space bound digital servers, rather than ground based.  With expectations of faster internet speeds and global coverage, to which the owner of SpaceX, Elon Musk and other private funded space programs, have set off a commercial space race, that is all but motivated by the drive to monopolize freight and exploration services into space.  With the microsatellite market encouraging the unregulated and in some cases unauthorized rocket launches under the premise of faster social media feeds, seems more of sweetener, towards the development of a widespread private space industry.  Meanwhile in the interim the microsatellite internet sell is more akin to the promise of high frequency advertising revenue - hence an expectation of profits, sold onto private investors.

However, most start-up companies attempting to come on line with the satellite space race, in financial speak, will need to tap the 'Junk Bond' market for its financing, which, with the  US Federal Reserve bank now lending, at close to 0% interest, ad infinitum within a COVID-19 viral pandemic world, their extreme money printing mandate has delivered large portions of cash directed into high risk and low grade bond markets.  As the speculation trade continues, with or without the pandemic that has swept the world, the saturation of money has flowed into Wall Street.  In 2018, five hundred and thirty four Venture Capitalist funds (junk bond funders) were funneling over 3.25 billion into space start up companies, however since SpaceX began its private space freighting enterprise in 2009, there has been a combined 18 billion dollars raised through private channels to fund the so called entrepreneurial space race.  With the current private space freight business adding 350 billion to the global gross domestic product, the investment bank Morgan Stanley projects that it could be a 1.4 trillion by 2040.  These are speculative forecasts, but never-the-less it shows a keen desire from the private space industry to exploit the lucrativeness of space exploration.

Yet, it is not just a driven desire of billionaires looking for the trillionaire status who are ramping up this new space race, globally countries have also joined the chorus, even Myanmar formerly known as Burma, a small (and poor) country of Asia, who holds one of the worst human rights abuse in the world, plans to be part of the microsatellite space race, with the launch of their first satellite in 2021.  They, such as other larger Asian countries like India and China, are jostling for a larger stake in space transportation services and more importantly, to show their ability for longer range satellites and probes.  America and Russia are also pursuing grandiose plans of space exploration, the original rivals of the first Space Race, to which Russia had lost out to the Americans, when on July 20th 1969, Neil Armstrong became the first man to land on the moon.  The superpowers have once again reinvigorated the idea of returning to the moon, with Russia hoping to have a lunar spacecraft land on the moon by 2025, with America saying by 2024 they will have a male and female astronaut participate in a moon landing.  With Elon Musk's SpaceX joining the moon race ambition, stating that he would like to have a crewed flight orbit the moon by 2023.

The new race to the Moon, all considered, is the worthwhile direction of an invigorated space industry, particularly if a moon base can be built.  Which is part of NASA's Artemis space program, including in their anticipation to have, for the 2nd time in history, humans visit the moon.  But it is the other aspects of NASA's Artemis plan which is more intriguing, to which they envision a space station to permanently orbit the moon called “Gateway” assisting in the logistical challenge of geologically studying planets and moons of the Solar System.  However, the Gateway orbiting moon station has drawn criticism from former NASA engineers, physicists and astronauts, noting that the cost of the program may not benefit the objectives, which on the whole seem slightly unclear, with speculation the Gateway orbiter may end up being an expensive storage facility for moon surveying equipment.  While NASA has scrambled prior to the anticipated launch of Artemis in 2024, drafting a new protocol for moon exploration, titled the 'Artemis Accords'.  A legal framework devised under the White House mandating a new Moon landing program.  It is also to reign in rogue aspects of  future Chinese and Russian moon expeditions, that for all intented purposes will also lay claim to parts of a resource rich Moon. 

With billions now pouring into Space programs throughout the world and a rush to place humans back on the moon, with further aspirations for a manned Mars mission.  Protocols and legal frameworks maybe overlooked as the smaller players rush into the microsatellite market, the overenthusiastic space race could end up becoming a harbinger of potential problems, rather than being beneficial for humanity.  Establishing a base on the Moon should be a goal, as a multi-nation effort, whilst also setting up deep space and moon radio arrays to study the Universe.  More importantly scanning the broader cosmos for threats.

On the 5th June 2020 an asteroid named 2020LD flew by the Earth, calculated to be at 80% of moon's distance, which is 190,559 miles to the Earth's surface.  Measuring at 122 meters (400 feet) in diameter it was only noticed two days later on the 7th of June after studying the observational data from the Asteroid Territorial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) at Mauna Loa in Hawaii, despite its small size comparable to the larger solar system asteroids.  Even at smaller width, it could easily, it it had impacted, destroyed a city.  The issue why it was not noticed, was its trajectory, which came in from the Sun's direction, which means it was blocked by the Sun's brightness.  Asteroid hunters require the twilight for their clearest perspective in tracking Near Earth Objects, more so the longer expose time, when imaging the night sky required to track the light reflected off asteroids.  The feverish race to the moon, with the primer being the inundated mirco satellite market, lead by SpaceX's Starlink constellation, will pose a risk to identifying and tracking asteroids.  Despite efforts of darkening the satellites, the sheer numbers proposed by rival companies with very little regulation, is staggering.  SpaceX has cleared the way in its competitive edge, to bolster the numbers into the tens of thousands of microsatellites - all set for the lower and upper atmospheres.  

This gleam of this new space race is more akin to a prefabricated landscape of hyper-real expectations rather than the advancement of humanity, to which, if there is manic rush to mine the Moon, place humans on Mars and fill the night sky with artificial specs of light.  It may also be at our detriment.   

___

Author: A.Glass