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CHIASMUS MAGAZINE BLOG. 2023 A YEAR IN REVIEW: Bitcoin bailout march 2023

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The fed and the fdic bailout crypto (for the time being). Bitcoin goes parabolic, short end yeilds collapse in hope at extended bailouts and rate pause.

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Markets of debt and the Food Inflation shock.

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Gold and the oil price are now showing signs of an inflation and doomsday hedge, as inflation remains sticky at 12 year highs, unemployment could spike with the oil price. Which is stagflation. Central Banks rate pauses and cuts would only exasperate the problem.

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Cults of the Culture Wars (part 3) (A.Glass 2021)

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The Fed has activated Quantitive Easing via their discount lending window for banks. Which now stands at $152 billion in less than a week, swelling the Fed's balance sheet to just under $300 Billion. The Fed is attempting to play both sides of the coin with QE and rate increases. Which may lead to further distortion in safe havens flows and bond markets.

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Bitcoin maintains rally after the Fed's bond bailout of crypto/disruptive tech/start ups. Credit Suisse writes-down $17 Billion of bonds at zero worth, underwritten by the Swiss National Bank. Bond markets are showing 1987 and 2008 turmoil with inflation on top.

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Moodboard: "CULTS OF THE CULTURE WARS (PART 3)." (A. GLASS. JANUARY 20, 2021)

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Oil price in three days has left its bear market, rising10%. Reasons: Banking sector bailouts and Central Banks expanding their balance sheets (once again). Plus, very concerning geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, Europe and South China sea; should keep the oil price bid over $70.

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Tesla heading towards its $100 lows. The only price support left. Telling, of overall NASDAQ positions minus the Fed's underwrite ala tech sector Bank bailouts.

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Self explanatory chart: Markets are showing all out confusion via the deflation and inflation scenarios. When Stagflation was just delayed ala massive oil releases and paradoxically the 2023 bank bailouts. Oil is reaching its $94 resistance a 12 month high. Blowing away Central Bank so called interest rate hikes of 2022 and 2023. The Fed should have been over 6% by now. Stagflation denial won't cut the mustard.

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A commodity snapshot: Corn, Lean Hog and the oil price from September 2022 to March 2023. Prices have not come down and remain bid and appear less volatile. A 2023 rally cannot be ruled out

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Oil is now in a bear market, falling 10% in 7 days. A bank contagion could be upon us, the Fed is now in U.S. Dollar money printing mode. Setting up $ swaps with the major central banks. Rates may pause in May 2023. Inflation is still at multi decade highs.

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The July 2022 Powell 'put' is still supporting the S&P 500, as the market is now rallying above 3968 at over 4% . Now overbought.

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Gold and Oil go bid as a hedge against systemic risk. The Fed bails out the banking system ala 2020 bailouts and underwrites the Crypto market. Eyes on the Fed's balance sheet and inflation fight and how long they will keep cheap funding open to banks while they (Fed) increase interest rates. Or will the Fed pause?

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S&P 500 futures are looking stretched. The U.S. government most likely will not default on its debt, yet confidence in the market is being tested. Liquidity is not as tight as it could be.

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Nasdaq rally since the March 2023 tech bank/sector bailouts is looking over stretched. In the unlikely pause by the Fed hiking rates for June, indexes have already priced in a pause in July. Deflation has not trumped inflation as yet.

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