Oil price in three days has left its bear market, rising10%. Reasons: Banking sector bailouts and Central Banks expanding their balance sheets (once again). Plus, very concerning geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, Europe and South China sea; should keep the oil price bid over $70.



The oil price very quickly bounced out of its bear market, as noted in this post, rallying 10% in three days.  Please refer (Chart 1) to the 69 price on the 23rd March, closing out at 71 on the 26th March.  Overall a 3.63% gain.

Oil is now back within its trading ranges of 69 and 72, on the back of Central Bank interventions within the bank/credit markets, ala the bailouts and underwrites associated with the tech sector/crypto and bond market blowouts.  And as noted in this post, the Fed is now expanding its balance sheet within an inflationary economy, which is U.S. Dollar negative, thus oil was able to gain a footing out of its oversold territory.  The other issue and most alarming is the geopolitical situation; with U.S. strikes on Iranian forces in Syria, Russia willing to base Nuke missiles along the Belarus/Ukrainian border.  China, North Korea and Russian military exercises near Japan

The oil price will stay bid, if another bank needs to have its deprecated assets placed on Central Bank balance sheet/s, Middle East/Europe and South China sea issues continue.  To what could be a flash point.

Comments