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The Japanese YEN is about to lose its safe haven appeal, as oil inflation will hit Japan like a freight train. Could it lead to an economic crisis?
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IS Bitcoin the new safe haven? The once traditional 'save haven'; the Japanese Yen, has fallen out of favor as Japan tackles the worst inflation in 40 years. Yet gold could be the hedge between crypto's speculative appeal and YEN instability.
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The YEN collapse is pointing towards an inflationary crisis in Japan rather than deflationary. Japanese consumer costs are skyrocketing, while the Bank of Japan keeps rates at ultra-low levels. Could Japan be one of the first major economies to priced out of existence?
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Self explanatory chart: Japanese yen falls to 37 year lows, on the back of U.S. Dollar strength and rising (short end) U.S. yields. Fed chairman fails to lift the YEN with dovish comments. MArkets are not buying the inflation fight is nearly over rhetoric. Remember, Japan is a net importer of oil. China 'slowdown' maybe stagflation lite.
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Bank of Japan intervenes for the first time in 24 years to shore up the collapsing YEN. The rally was token with the YEN still at two decade lows.
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*UPDATE* The Japanese YEN and Australian dollar (AUD) are now in freefall. With the YEN returning back to its 15 year lows. On the back of a China slowdown, which may turn into a recession. Food inflation is still sticky. *Update: RBA raises rate/s to 0.25% after April pause. AUD rallies. Central Banks return to tightening bias*
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YEN and BITCOIN are collapsing, the era of certain safe havens and E-coins have come to an end. Stagflation and interest rates, while Japan is stuck at negative 10% rate. The country could be priced out of existence, setting off a new Asian currency crisis.
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The Federal Reserve may increase interest rates and lift their terminal rate to a higher level. Japan and the U.K. are already in a currency crisis. Could Australia be next? As a divergence between dovish Central Banks and a hawkish Fed, may set off a wave of Foreign Exchange inflation.
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Inflation maybe returning to its 2022 highs. Showing up in manufacturing, wages and services. China's rapid reopening could add energy inflation to global economies. The Federal Reserve's 'terminal rate' will be closer to 6% rather than 5%.
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self explanatory chart: Japanese YEN falls below its 20 + year lows, as the Bank of japan begins its intervention. Timed with Fed chairman Jerome POwell's dovish rhetoric in lieu of sticky U.S. inflation. YEn rallies as the DXY (USD) sells. The U.S. and West may never endure deflation again, as embedded stagflation maybe the new 'normal'. Until it isn't.
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Trump flips the 'off switch 'again on Iran, deciding not to launch a massive "ww2" attack on Iranian "targets" . Oil collapses over 8%, YEN goes bid, USD sells, and Treasuries rally. Is his trading desk with his thermonuclear red button, lit up readying for midterms in November?
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The Euro and Japanese Yen are now at 20 year lows against the U.S. Dollar, which is showing up as both an energy and currency crisis for the Euro zone and Japan. The Fed could trigger a 0.75% interest rate rise at their next meeting and leave rates close to 3% before the Northern Hemisphere winter.
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Bitcoin the new safe haven? Replacing the Japanese YEN and British Pound as central banks scramble to deal with global stagflation.
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Credit Suisse is about to be be bailed out (again) by the Swiss National Bank. Oil has decoupled from gold as a possible risk hedge, on plunging yields and U.S. Dollar. Will Central Banks begin asset buying programs and start their money printing once again? Inflation is still elevated at 6% with full employment. This is not like 2008.
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Euro collapses, as oil, food and inflation spike across Europe. European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde claims inflation for Europe is different to America,
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Self explanatory chart: Japanese YEN and Month on Month inflation (Japan).
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