Viruses. Undead pathogens: the borrower and destroyer of life. (Part 5) COVID-19

As the race to secure vaccines against COVID-19 begin their arrival towards the finish line, its fast tracked delivery has been due to the massive amount of public monies invested into private companies for the development of a vaccine that will be effective. After 11 months of the pandemic sweeping through the world back and forth, as countries and leaders, mostly focused on mitigating the economic damaging by shutting down and reopening in their fumbled mannerisms, the real cost has been the lost of control of infections and the daily death toll to which America leads the rest of the world with over a thousand people a day dying from Covid-19. Stage three, the final part of the process in developing a workable vaccination relies on widespread inoculation, is usually achieved with over a thousand people with a percentage actually ill from the virus, with testing split between healthy volunteers who receive a placebo and others that actually are administered the vaccine. The percentage rates are therefor attained by monitoring the effectiveness of a varied cross section of people who have been tested positive for COVID-19, to see if they have built an immunity against the virus and healthy applicants ensuring that the dosage is safe.

It has been the two American based companies that have heralded the most encouraging results, Pfizer in conjunction with the German company BioNTech has recently said that their vaccination against COVID-19 is now at 95%, with its competitor the smaller company Moderna at over 94%, both companies have accelerated variants of the synthetic Messenger RiboNucleric Acid molecules or mRNA which are genetic material duplications of the virus rather than its foreign proteins, mimicking aspects of COVID-19 viral macromolecule. Once injected into into the human body, the cells then read the mRNA whilst adjusting our immune system so that antibodies can be developed – thus immunity is, in theory, ensured. Overall immunization will occur if an inoculated person does become infected by the actual virus, the body will be well prepared. The high percentage rates of success have been astounding for such a quick process of developing a synthetic version of COVID-19's mRNA compounds, with over two billion dollars have been invested into both companies from US public monies. The hope is that a expedited vaccination can be begin at the end of 2020 for the American population.

Yet, despite the positive news, particularly the high rate of immunization at 90% against COVID-19 as opposed to the influenza vaccinations which sit with the 60 and 70 percent rages. There are discrepancies. In comparison with the flu vaccination, although the viruses are intrinsically different strains, the flu vaccine, which does rely on duplicating the newer strain of Influenza every year, is created within an laboratory setting as as less virulent strain. It is however, as a workable global vaccination, a more durable vaccine than the COVID-19 mRNA vaccinations, that Pfizer and Moderna have been touting as the game changer for the pandemic. The main issue being that the mRNA breaks down very quickly if it is not keep at below or just above freezing temperatures and it is the promising vaccine from Pfizer which needs to be at below -70 Celsius (-94 Fahrenheit), Moderna can be, reported by the company, stored above freezing in a standard laboratory or household refrigerator. Regardless of the temperatures and variances between the two front runners, the process of keeping the vaccine cold will in turn create one of biggest logistical issues the world has ever faced in the distribution of a COVID-19 vaccine, but it will also end up being one of the most expensive. And it is Moderna, that has made the claim to fame of a more deliverable vaccine which will be the most high-priced, as a small and struggling company, sans the potentiality of their CEO's insider trading within the stage 3 of its final test results, its COVID-19 injections which will need to be of two separate doses, are being sold at $60 a jab. The company has all ready been jam packed with sales to the richest nations, which have required millions of doses for 2021. 

The more pressing concern with trials now moving into seal of approval from regulatory bodies is how long the antibodies will last once a person receives a shot of the mRNA vaccination. The questions will also remain at how many booster shots are required after the initial shot for complete immunity? Could COVID-19, although very different to the seasonal flu, be a virus that continues to move around the world in waves of constant mutations, not adhering to Northern and Southern Hemisphere seasonal patterns.

*Updated 24/11/2020  

The UK pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca have released its preliminary stage 3 testing advising that their percentage rate of immunization falls at 70%, which, according to officials form the company could be tweaked to rise to 90%. A far more durable vaccination that is similar to the influenza vaccine, with normal refrigeration being suitable, not subzero storage like their competitors and a longer shelf life.  Making it a far more attractive vaccine for widespread global immunization.  This added percentage is on the second booster shot that all the stage 3 tests up to this point time require to complete an overall immune system response from COVID-19.  But, the clarity in AstraZeneca's test applicants immunity responses, dose irregularities and safety of their vaccine is murky from their recent report, which has raised concerns with both the Center for Disease Control and the US Food and Drug Administration that from a perspective of efficiency is not on par with Pfizer and Moderna's COVID-19 vaccines that are all seeking approval for widespread inoculation. AstraZeneca is also experimenting, like Pfizer and Moderna with a mRNA synthetic compound of the COVID-19 virus, yet there reported adverse effects of the AstraZeneca trial which was put on hold this year by UK regulators, after hospitalizations of two test subjects.  Unlike the influenza vaccination – which there are disclosed side effects, there is also a concern by the American Medical Association that some of the underreported side effects, such as intense headaches, muscle and mental fatigue and mild fever have occurred.  Particularly after the 2nd shot was administered to its test subjects who were involved in the COVID-19 trials. Which should be revealed as a matter of prudence, since two shots are required for a yearly inoculation.  Full disclosure will offset any anti-vaccination backlash for COVID-19.

*Updated 21/12/2020

A variant of the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) titled: VIU-202012/01, has began to spread throughout the South of England, discovered in the country of Kent on September the 20th 2020, an offshoot of the Covid-19 virus, which has been circulating around the world in a constant mutation.  Scientists aware of these mutations, have been mapping the changing COVID-19 ribonucleic acid proteins (RNA) and with the information gathered via the study of its linage, has in turn assisted in creating the successful vaccines to date.  These new strains of COVID-19 discovered throughout 2020 have revealed no real concern that a mutation of the virus could actually make it more deadly than what it is, however the outbreak in the UK has shown that the mutated version of COVID-19 can be spread more easily.  Blamed for the large spike in the amount of infected people across England in a short period of time from September to November 2020, it is when officials who have been monitoring the parabolic infection rates of the cluster outbreaks in around UK hot spots, have seen evidence that the virulence of this mutated strain has overtaken the older strain, in the sense that person-to-person transmission may be more prolific and widespread.   By the fact its mutation rate and changing proteins have shown unusual characteristics, further worrying experts that it could be more durable in environments than the previous strain, whilst being able to infect human cells more easily.   Another concerning aspect of this mutated COVID-19 strain, is the effect it has on Children, to which the earlier strain was less infectious to a younger person.  This new virus has spread quickly amongst children, for reasons still being studied.  The UK is now being shutoff from Europe and a focus of international concern, which is in lieu of the vaccination roll-outs penciled in for mid and late 2021, this new strain, including a newly discovered South African one, may affect the planned vaccinations.   While the hospital system throughout the UK and Europe continues to struggle and cope with the amount of infected people.    

*Updated 26/01/2021*

Europe is battling three new strains of COVID-19, known as the Brazilian, South African and UK strains, with America now shutting its borders to Europe, Brazil and South Africa, as the more virulent at this point in time is the UK and South African mutations, coded as B.1.17 (UK) and B.1.351 (South Africa).  With a spike in infection rates from these new viral strains which has increased up to 40% making the variant more infectious than the original mutation, indicative of the constant mutations, under its medical name SARS-Cov2, is evolving, hence the counties of origin to which this new COVID-19 virus has emerged are now being isolated.  Meanwhile, the much anticipated and hyped roll out of the 1st vaccinations has begin to slow down dramatically across Europe, with the European Union under fire for not moving quickly enough in vaccinating the vulnerable.  The pressure on the already stressed hospital system, while the death toll continues to climb. It is the pharmaceutical giants, namely AstraZenenca who received a billion dollars in US public funds to fast track the vaccination should also harbor the blame for their tardiness.   In fact the croynism has been rife, particularly when blatant inside share trading took place in the tail end of 2020 when the over 90% success rates of immunization against COVID-19 was disclosed, which set the stock market alight, including on a separate note the 7 trillion dollars of Federal Reserve Funds being pumped into the behemoth equity market.   The reality is, on much of the hyped expectations, the delivery of the promised vaccinations are being crimped by the companies in question,  who are now failing in keeping up with production.

The growing fear that virologists have is that the new mutations, more so the emerging UK and South African strains may ultimately effect the original vaccines, thus lowering the success rate of immunization against the virus.   Which in turn companies already with developed vaccines may have to completely up date their vaccinations and/or offer another 'booster' shot making it 3 in total for immunity, despite the original inoculations against the 1^st  strain currently taking place at two shots.

Vaccinations against COVID-19 maybe an enduring and continued process.

*Updated 7/2/2021*

With stops and starts, political misfiring and over promised deliveries via the main contenders for the Covid-19 vaccines, the mass immunization has finally begun throughout Europe, more so the UK, and America, with the Southern Hemisphere gearing up for March 2021 on the delivery of the vaccines.   With a plethora of vaccines coming on line, the race has been more of a frantic sprint to the finish line in the securing of enough doses for the entire global population to be fully immunized against Covid-19.   However, with a reported 4000 different  mutated strains of this virus, with the UK and South African variants showing the most resistance to the current dosage of the vaccinations, at two separate jabs, within a period of 3 months apart to gain a total immunization.  The over stretching of doses to contain the current strain of Covid-19 could come under further pressure, as the two most reliable vaccines being used by Europe, UK and America, beinthe Pfizer BioNTech and Oxford AstraZeneca.   So far from initial testing, the over 90% efficiency for the 1^st strain falls to 85% for the UK mutation of Covid-19, more concerning is the Pfizer BioNTech ratio drops to a reported 60% for the South African strain, keeping in mind that Flu vaccination for acceptable efficiency is within the 70% ranges, with Oxford AstraZeneca not disclosing before a peer preview of its study, in a recent preliminary test - the fear is an overall percentage rate is very low in lieu of the South African strain.

This, known as B.1.351, Covid-19 mutation is seen as more virulent strain as its spike proteins have altered, to enable the entity to bind to cells easier and contaminate the host.   Virologists urge, that the two dosage requirement for the Covid-19 vaccinations should be administered in a close time frame to be build antibodies against the disease, with a possible 3^rd shot required to tackle the variant.  That one shot will not be sufficient in tackling the pandemic.  The question/s is will the pharmaceutical companies have enough for 2^nd and 3^rd shots?  And can the governments coordinate an effective 2^nd course of the vaccinations, whilst be aware that the South African strain be render the doses useless.  

So far they have shown an incapability in their mad rush to open the economy. 

*Updated 9^th January 2021*

The  B.1.351 or South African virus has come in at 10% efficiency with a control study by Oxford AstraZeneca, which means the vaccination against this mutant strain is next to useless.  Hence South Africa, that the strain originated from, has ceased the order of Oxford AstraZeneca vaccinations until the vaccine is updated.   The concern of the more virulent virus is that they may linger in the air for longer without drying out and being inactive, while mass inculcations are taking place throughout the Northern Hemisphere in a race to reopen the economies for Spring Summer 2021, there is a similarity to the disastrous opening of 2020, which could ring true again.  If the UK and South African variants of Covid-19 can't be contained just before the lockdowns are lifted throughout Europe, UK, America.  A 'new' wave could emerge of the mutated Covid-19 that, so far, the current vaccinations will have no effect.

*updated 18th February 2021*

The three main vaccines, Oxford AstraZeneca, Pfizer Inc/BioNTech and Moderna, which have shown over 90% effectiveness from the original strain of COVID-19 are now revealing with recent controlled testing, starting with AstraZeneca which came in at 10% which would be useless against the mutation strains.  More so the concerning South African mutation of COVID-19, Pfizer has recently come out and said that its vaccine, now widely be used in rolled out inoculations globally, has indicated that it is less than two-thirds effective against the S.A variant otherwise known as B.1.351.  Moderna whose claim, although not peer previewed as yet, that its COVID-19 vaccine is effective against the Brazilian, South African and UK strains has yet to disclose its findings.   This may slow down production, hence the global vaccination drive with the pharmaceutical companies awaiting trials and adjusting the vaccinations, so that a next wave of immunizations will include the mutated strains. 

*update 2^nd March 2021*

As the lock downs begin to ease and vaccinations and testing or COVID-19 remain persistent throughout Europe, despite some lags in the old continent.  America however has remained inconsistent in its handling of the pandemic since the fumbled stages of the early lockdowns and testing in 2020, with the state California  leading the most deaths with 50,000 and over 3 million active cases.  The imperativeness  of having effective and reliable testing should remain a priority and not be scaled back under the Biden administration, even with the mass roll out of vaccinations for Spring/Summer and the hope of partial reopening of local economies, but, as the director of the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Dr Rochelle Walensky has said in a stark warning that a 4^th wave of COVID-19 could strike across America if protocols such as mask wearing and limited public gatherings are not reinforced.  American deaths and hospitalizations have fallen bellow 50,000 for the first time since April 2020, proving that the lockdowns work in reducing infections and more importantly deaths from the virus.   To date, there has been over 240 million vaccinations of COVID-19 given to th American populous, averaging at 6 million shots a day.

Yet, the spanner in the works for global herd immunization from COVID-19 are the variants that seem to be mutating and a rapid rate, the main contenders are the UK, Brazil and South African strains with a nasty Californian variation, which so far has bee contained mostly to California and hopefully is being tracked very closely.  However, it is the South African (B.1.351) and Brazilian variant/s (B.1.1.28), with the Brazilian now coded as P1 and P2 as two different strains that are posing a global risk of reinfections.  With the Brazilian P1 mutation of the variant becoming the most concerning, now active in the UK, after a failed quarantine situation.   First discovered in Mananus in 2019, within the Amazon region of Brazil, it turned up in Japan in January 2021 from

Brazilian travelers, to which a paper via virological.org of the year it was discovered in Japan (2021) outlined the dangers of 17 unique mutations of amino acids changes or proteins – which, in further studies have found that it can easily bind to cells, while splitting from the P2 variant.  This new Brazilian strain has since spread to 25 countries around the world and is twice as transmissible to other variants.  In a joint research paper between Imperial Collage London and the University of São Paulo,  researchers discovered that P1 was able to “evade 21-62 % of protective immunity elicited by previous infection”  in other words you can be reinfected by the COVID-19 P1 variant with a lack of antibody response, which means that the current vaccinations may not have any affect on this new Brazilian strain – that if left unchecked, with a lapse in quarantines, lockdowns (when necessary) and mask wearing, it may end up developing into another wave of COVID-19 infections.

*Updated 25th March 2021*

While governments of the Northern hemisphere scramble to get their economies back online for Spring Summer 2021 after a year of lockdowns, inoculation programs so far have been disproportionate, with the wealthiest countries now ramping up production facilities to vaccinate their own populous, the fear of vaccination nationalism is well and truly here. America, England being two of the main culprits, that despite being it hard by the virus, made an absolute mess of the pandemic in its early stages by playing up and down the virus and utilizing economic measures as future gauges in trying to return their economies back to the old normal.  Still, it was the richest nations who claimed the highest bids on the first imported vaccinations from the pharmaceutical giants Pfizer and AstraZeneca, who have quickly immunized large portions of the population whilst stockpiling vaccines while others countries have yet to even begin the first phase of inoculations. There is now a growing spat between the European Union and the UK, with the conservative government under Boris Johnson importing more vaccines than needed, already over 28 million people in England have been vaccinated against COVID-19.  The fear is that if countries begin to stock pile, like America has also done under President Biden, the nations that are poorer may struggle to gain excess to the vaccinations, unable to be immunized against the first strain of COVID-19 the virus could continue its mutation into a strain that the first stage of vaccinations may not offer an protection from, such as the South African (B.1.351) and Brazilian variant/s (B.1.1.28). Poorer and higher populated counties can lose can control of genome sequencing and tracking of COVID-19 mutations, such as India, whilst battling a renewed spike in infections from the first variants of the virus, scientists in India have discovered a “double mutant virus” that has originated in the Maharashtra state of India. Which means that this particular strain of COVID-19 has two mutations of its protein spike, rather than one.

Making it far more infectious and dangerous.

*Updated 5th April 2021*

The Pandemic of 2020 no doubt caused a frantic rush into developing a workable and readily available vaccine, with a billions of dollars pumped into the three main contenders Moderna, Pfizer and AstraZeneca, it was Pfizer's that became the more effective in creating antibodies for COVID-19 with Moderna and AstraZeneca trailing slightly behind in the percentage rate of efficiency.  Nevertheless, all three vaccines appear to work in developing an overall immunity response against the COVID-19 and some of its viral strains.  However, the most held up to scrutiny and possibly the sloppiest in researched papers of all of the vaccines available is the UK's AstraZeneca, starting from their March 22^nd 2021 interim result in hope that the U.S. FDA will clear the vaccine for general use in America, with claims of 79% effectiveness, compared to Pfizer's 95%, which is still acceptable and their 100% claim that it will eliminate hospitalizations and deaths from COVID-19.  The US National Institute of Allergy and Infections Diseases (NIAID) released a statement warning the UK pharmaceutical giant had used “outdated” and “incomplete” data in creating an overall rosy picture for its clinical trials, this discrepancy was actually revealed by the Data and Safety Monitoring  Board an independent group of scientists that advise the NIAID on COVID-19 vaccination trials.  The damning report criticized  AstraZeneca for overstating results and making unsubstantial claims of efficiency, which they, in past drug trails have been criticized, in allowing similar company statements for new drugs about to hit the market.  

On March 25^th 2021  AstraZeneca released updated results, with more substantive data showing that the vaccine is 76% effective in US clinical trials.   However, five days later on March 30, 2021 Germany and Canada halt their vaccination programs with AstraZeneca 's vaccine due to blood clotting and hospitalizations linked to its inculcations for people under the age of 60.  Netherlands joins the chorus of disapproval of the AstraZeneca vaccine, suspending its use in its country for the same reasons; that the vaccine maybe responsible for blood clots. After findings by the UK's Medicines and Heathcare Products Regulatory Board had announced that out of 18 million who have bee vaccinated with AstraZeneca, 30 were hospitalized with bloodclots to which 7 people had died.

Still, the main concern facing the world is a possible 1^st wave of a newer and deadlier strain of COVID-19, the Brazilian mutation known as P.1.  Which so far is surging in Brazil as the number one killer, alarmingly, this mutation is affecting the young with hospitalizations and death.   The fast tracking of vaccines will continue, depending on the severity of AstraZeneca's bloodclotting issues, of which if there is a pause in the vaccination program, the deadly Brazilian strain of COVID-19 that has been detected in Michigan U.S and Canada could render the previous vaccines useless.  So, the race to vaccinate is of high priority and the theory seems sound, eliminate the first COVID-19 strain, work on containing  the mutated strains, more so the P.1 and the have inoculations ready later in the year or next to deliver an updated vaccination program for the variants.  With tourism and economies desperate to reopen.  

Can it be done?