CPI drops to 5% on lower energy costs. Falling inflation has everything to do with Biden's SPR release in 2020. Oil stocks in the U.S., are now at thirty year lows, with the oil price rallying towards its $90 support.




Chart 1

Chart 2

Chart 3


The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March 2023 has shown a major drop in inflation to 5%, which of course, despite energy and food be excluded from the overall measure, has an influence on price pressures.   And as noted with Chart 1 above from the U.S. Bureau of Statistics, energy prices have fallen significantly.  

Chart 2, shows the oil price now ascending towards its $90 support, after OPEC cuts and a shrinking U.S. reserves, and it can be argued that President Biden was responsible for bringing down inflation with his Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) release in May of 2020, not the Federal Reserve per se, at their interest rate/s that are still way beneath a terminal rate which should be over 5%; for it have any significant impact on inflated prices within the U.S. economy.

Chart 3, although somewhat messy (prices, trades, call, lines etc), shows the decline in U.S. inflation (below pane, yellow line) and the oil price, with the price of oil now heading north, undoubtable this should drag inflation back up to the 6% range again.  Unless Biden releases another SPR for May/June 2023, but with emergency reserves at an all time low, would be very risky for America.  The global economy is certainly not facing a 1980 oil glut.  

More so a supply shortage on rising production costs.

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