The s&p 500 has rallied 3% since the Israel/Hamas war. On hope that inflation and a war in the middle east can be "contained". Be wary of wishful thinking.

The S&P 500 is up over 3% since the Hamas attack on Israel and Israel's disproportionate  bombing campaign on the Gaza strip, over 6000 bombs dropped in 4 days.   This has to do with several factors, but the main reason is the dovish Federal Reserve who have been reiterating how they feel inflation is 'contained' and that rates are sufficient at 5.25% and the oil price leveling out at $85 when the conflict began on the 7th October.  Unable to piece $90, as American and European diplomats have travelled back and forth to the Middle East to see if they can 'contain' Israel's invasion on Gaza from spilling out to Syria, Lebanon and more importantly Iran.  

Regardless of the geopolitical ramifications and if the Fed do indeed offer guidance that they may cut rates in 2024, at this point in time the S&P 500 has found its top at 4600 (green line) and is holding about it's support of 4283 (red line).

Separate pane shows West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at $85pb with its $90 price resistance.  All eyes on the Middle East, markets may come under pressure if Iran backed Hezbollah engage in a major attack on Israel and America gets involved in the conflict directly.   Oil should rally to $90 and beyond.

Comments