U.S. employment surges to its highest in 20+ years, lead by the service sector despite job losses in technology. Very evident of services driving up inflation. Money supply is still at multidecade highs as personal saving rates have collapsed to their 18 yr lows.

The lag or drop in inflation with the on and again off again hawkish and dovish expectations of the Federal Reserve, which seems stuck in hoping that inflation has peaked.  Is all but a blip.  As on Friday the Central Bank received a shock when Non-farm payrolls showed a massive increase in January of 517,000 added jobs to expectations of 185,000 added.  Which shows two things, 1.  Wall Street is still pricing in a recession, thus analysts are missing the service sector constant rise in employment.  2.  Inflation is now being lead by service industries, regardless of wages not keeping up, the demand for services show's an expansion as an symptom of inflation that has truly become imbedded into the wider U.S. economy.

The above chart shows four graphs, the white line is the current employment rate at 20 year highs, after its 2020 crash.   Surging to levels that are unprecedented since 2000.  The bar chart is the M2 money supply, that has remained elevated for the said periods of time only dipping slightly which would be the very light knock-on effect of the Fed's interest rate hikes, since February 2022.  The blue line is the current interest rate, which may be sitting below the Fed's terminal rate at 5% (red vertical line).  Finally, the orange line shows personal savings, despite higher interest rates, at 18 year lows.

In summary the Fed's interest rate cycle is far from over.