Markets are grossly underpricing global stagflation. The Fed, according to CME FedWatch, has priced in a 99% chance of no hike for September 2023. Your Uber driver would know more about the economy than any 'pudit' waffling about 'deflation' and a 'softlanding'
Above chart is the NASDAQ treading water, yet supported by expectations that The Federal Reserve will over dovish guidance to the market/s. In the meantime Global inflation is climbing again.
Latest, is Canada's August 2023 inflation came in at 4% y-o-y from 3.3%. Market had priced 3.8%.
CME FedWatch has a close to 100% chance that they will pause a rate hike for September 2023.
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