CPI blows out, most rise in Food and Energy since 1981. A stagflation energy and food crisis beatdown on the boil. Will Central Banks begin to lift rates to be on par with 1970's and 1980's inflation?

U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in, year-over-year, at 7.9%,  with oil and gasoline blowing out and adding to the overrise at 6.6%.   But despite energy prices contributing to this spike in inflation, it was food costs that rose the most by 8.6% y/o/y according to the U.S. Bureau of Statistics, calculated as "food at home", noted below:



                              Aug.  Sep.  Oct.  Nov.  Dec.  Jan.  Feb.   ended
                              2021  2021  2021  2021  2021  2022  2022   Feb.
                                                                         2022

Food at home.............    .4   1.2    .9    .9    .4   1.0   1.4      8.6






This rise in food prices is the most inflated since 1981, which was the same year/s, refer to the Chart above, when the oil glut began and oil prices began to collapse.   Inflation was sticky until the 1990's when food prices began to fall, however was is alarming about this new era of stagflation is relation to the 1973 oil crisis, as marked on the Chart above, is both food and oil have caused a hand-in-hand spike in inflation.  However, what must be noted was the Federal funds rates from 1973 through to 1980 in  combating inflation, offers a clue to how tardy and behind the 8 ball the Federal Reserve and other Central Banks are in beginning a tightening cycle, by reigning in excess liquidity.    The spike from the CPI in 1973, which is roughly on par with the 2022 rise in inflation, the fund rate was at 8.67%, peaking out, when the 1970's and early 1980's energy crisis was at its most extreme; at 13.35%.  

And yet, Chairman Jerome Powell of the Fed has offered, from a 0.50% rise speculated for March 2022 to be cut to a measly 0.25%.  

The issue will be food prices and if Russia, one of top exporters of supplying the world with wheat exports at $8.14 billion, supply chain breaks down due to the on going invasion of Ukraine, mixed with climate change.  It will be our Central Banks, who, if they cannot get a handle of inflation now, the effects of hyperinflation on food can happen very quickly.  

A global food crisis due to inflation which will impact the richer countries hard, would be be a scrouge for the poorer countries. 

Inflation is a beast.   

Comments