Global stagflation was not averted, only delayed. Middle Eastern war between Palestine/iran and Israel has begun with U.S. oil stocks at all times lows and embedded inflation from 2022. Governments can't backstop energy prices forever.



Global stagflation was not averted, only delayed.  Which is the story of the day with extreme levels of monetary and fiscal intervention, energy prices on a global level have been capped, more so Natural gas ala the Ukraine/Russia war.  The Russian oil caps haven't really worked, as Russia with Saudi Arabia has been messing around with output cuts via OPEC, thus, Hedge Funds running an extremely leveraged trade on crude futures, recently bidding the price to $93 a barrel, from lows of $63 (May 2023).  Only to come crashing down to $81 after a very messy unwinding of their future crude positions, in lieu with the Federal Reserve possibly tightening in one last rate increase for 2023, after the next meeting.

But, a spanner has been thrown and it is the conflict between Palestine and Israel, with full scale rocket attacks on Israel by Hamas.  This could be the start of a wider conflict, namely with Iran.  Eyes on Israel's response, if it strikes Iranian targets in a major offensive. 

Chart above is the West Texas Intermediate, overlayed with the U.S. Dollar and Strategic Petroleum Reserves (Bar Chart).  As you can see, oil and the USD were both bid on inflation and risk aversion hedging, all the while U.S.  crude stocks are at all times lows.  The conundrum for the Fed, as they apparently begin to cease the interest rate cycle, is the Middle East/Israel conflict, low oil stocks and U.S. Dollar weakness.  Combine all this and you have, not only imbedded inflation from 2022, but stagflation that my rival what occured in the 1970's.   

Not to dismiss the Ukraine/Russia conflict, as war and military spending is notoriously inflationary 

Expect oil to regain its $90+ price supports once again.  

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