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Biden releases one million barrels of oil per month from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, oil collapses under $100. Central Banks handballing the inflation problem back to Governments. Rates are too low, core inflation is parabolic. Oil investment crash next? Putin will veto Germany's gas supply if they don't pay in Rubles. How far will Russia allow the oil price too drop?
China sends the oil price down below $100, remains bid above the $95 price support. The G7 want Russian oil caps to reduce what Russia earns on its oil. Says, that it will bring down inflation. It probably won't, but will have the opposite, driving prices higher. As a counter measure Putin could turn off the gas taps to Europe and drive up electricity costs globally.
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Oil punches through its $90 price resistance, now trading above 10 month highs. Next price resistance ranges are $95 and the psychological $100 per barrel. Saudi Arabia and Russian supply cuts will last december 2023. China is not in deflation, rather the economy is stagnating with higher energy costs.
OPEC tightens supply and offers "voluntary" oil cuts of its members, prior to U.s elections/Central Banks beginning to cut rates in 2024, then they'll add barrels back into the market. The market has over read this as bearish. Oil slump's over 3%, while geopolitical issues remain, as Ukraine can target Russia with U.S. made missiles. Russian Oil refineries maybe targets.
Oil futures are trading above $83 per barrel on Israel's looming invasion of Lebanon. If the oil price sits above $90 for an extended period of time, more than a month. Stagflation will be locked into the global economy. A wider conflict in the middle east would be Iran and the U.S. directly in combat
0.25% rate rise, 1st in 5 years. Will have zero affect on inflation. US Dollar sells, markets rally. Last gasp pump for speculation while inflation is the worst in 40 years. Volatility now showing up in oil. About to reclaim the $100 a barrel, even if China doesn't come back online. Will Europe have the balls to cut Russian oil?
Oil rallies above its $95 support, hitting $100. I caught a short position and long position as a hedged play. Natural gas prices are diverging from the oil price as Europe enters an energy crisis before Autumn/Winter. Oil maybe used for heating on tighter gas supplies. The oil sell off has spluttered out.
