Russia cuts off gas supplies to Europe, energy inflation is now that "imbedded" inflation. Oil price is bid on OPEC cuts. Russian oil caps may force Russia to cut all oil supplies to international markets. Should a Cold War part 2 be called?
Energy inflation is about to roar back to life after Biden's SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve) release at one billion barrels of oil a day has been successful, albeit in the short short term, in dropping the oil price under $100. The SPR release aided mostly the American consumer towards the tail end of Summer to have some reprieve at the petrol pump, but overall it dropped inflation slightly in July and August. This slight dip in the oil price is ending, as OPEC has decided to cut output, pressured by both Russia and Saudi Arabia, with the $100 Putin "Put" coming back into play. To which Russia has fully cut off Europe's access to its gas exports, which Europe did see coming, in a sought of dazed and confused way, in tune with its handling of inflation. Which is now becoming so imbedded into the European economy, that it may take more than just 0.50% rate hikes to tame, but much like American inflation, there might have to be an emergency rate hike (I know, they are quick to cut rates) that could see a 1 or 2 % hike in a single meeting from Central Bank officials.
Germany is about to implement price controls through a 65 Billion Euro stimulus (?) for inflation, which could indicate that other European countries will fallow suit, which will make the job of taming inflation even harder and more restrictive the European Central Bank will have to become. The soon-to-be Russian oil cap which is about to be implemented by G7 members, may not drop the oil price and force Russia to sell oil at cheaper price, it may be the opposite that Russia pull out of the whole oil market altogether (except for India and China) and force the oil price up over $100, unless Iran can come on line, Saudi Arabia increases its output and Israel reigns in its war rhetoric on Iran's nuke ambitions, the oil market will face more destabilization than anything else.
Above chart is a stagflation primer of both Natural Gas and the oil prices (West Texas Intermediate) and the electricity use (correlation to natural gas prices) as we enter a new Cold War.
Should a new Cold War officially be called?
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