Oil is bid over $80 on mostly geopolitical concerns. Israel may ignite a wider conflict, on preemptive attacks against Arab countries. The Rahfa, Gaza offensive by Israel, could bring in Turkey and Iran to take military action against Israel. Ukraine, if allowed by the West, could strike Russian refineries with Western supplied missiles. Ukraine, since March 2024 has hit 16 russian oil hubs with drones.

The oil price has punched through its $80 price resistance, with volatility slowly ebbing away, as oil appears relatively supported by mainly geopolitical concerns from the Middle East through to the Russian/Ukraine conflict.  However, Israel is the main issue, as it seems to want to escalate the conflict into Egypt and most of Lebanon and Syria, while going against the wishes of the West not to attack the highly populated area of Rafha in Gaza, which is now a refugee area for displaced Palestinians.  If Israel maintains their aerial bombardments on civilian targets within Gaza, and the West namely America cannot rein in Israel's military campaign, we may may see a Middle Eastern country become more aggressive towards Israel.  One cannot rule out Turkey and Iran, as the two countries are capable of launching military blockades and missile/drone attacks into Israel.  And Iran on the 14th April 2024, proved that it could launch waves of drones and missiles (over 300) into Israeli airspace, which required a joint task force to shoot them down by Jordan, Saudi Arabia, UK and American warplanes.  The oil price spiked to $86 per barrel.  

The other geopolitical support for the oil price, is the issue with Ukraine and its attack on Russian oil refineries.  If Ukraine is given the green light to launch Western supplied missiles at Russian targets within Russia, these may very well be aimed at Russian oil hubs/ports, namely the Slavyansk (Slavyansk Eco) refinery 350 km from the Ukrainian border.  The refinery was taken off line when Ukraine on the 18th, 19th of May hit the refinery with drones.   A missile would cause a lot more damage.  

Ukraine has attacked 16 Russian oil refineries since March 2024.

Oil is bid over the psychological price resistance $80, with supports at $78 and $75.   Please refer to the above Chart, also refer to call out notes.