Oil price jumps 5% on speculation ISrael will attack Iran's energy infrastructure and nuclear programs. This could lead to wider strikes on Israel from iran and its proxies in the region, drawing in America into the conflict. Prudent to prepare for an oil shock and stagflation.

 

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After Israel assassination campaigns of Iranian backed leaders of proxy militia in Lebanon, and Tehran itself.  Iran had felt compelled to reitalate with its 200 missile strikes, which all were mostly shot down by Israel, America and its allies within the region, including Jordan.  Israel, renown for disporpoiante counter strikes against its enemies, is currently in discussion with the Biden administration to attack Iran's oil infrastructure, and possible nuclear programs, which has been on the drawing board for many years, to which the Biden administration is about to ok such a strike.  But, could be reluctant for Israel to attack Iran's nuclear research facilities.    

The prelude to Israel striking Iran, in a larger and more significant response after April of this year symbolic bombing of Iran's missile defense systems, near Iran's Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center.  The U.S. has been stockpiling a lot of oil, with the Saudis removing their $100 bench, and expanding output en masse.

With what appears to be a maneuvering of the oil price by State Department officials on how a so-called low level war with Iran and Israel could play out.  Which America will need to control Israel better, with Gaza and Lebanon as good examples of stepping over the line in its responses to being attacked.  The hope, in its possible speculative play, is to have the oil price spike to $100 on Israel response to Iran's missile attack, then using that technique called hope, that it quickly declines to $80 or the high $70, lessening an oil shock in the U.S., and elsewhere.  

A precarious and dangerous strategy to say the least, with no ceasefire or peace plans in place.  War between Iran and Israel could be inevitable.  The stagflation and oil shock scenario should not be ruled out.

News headlines:

• Oil jumps over $3 a barrel as Middle East conflict stokes supply worry - Reuters

• Iran vs. Israel redux: The enormous difficulties and ramifications if Israel attacks Iran’s nuclear sites - The Bulletin

• US would not support Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear sites, says Biden - The Guardian

• Iran warns of ‘unconventional response’ in case of new Israeli attack - Al Jazeera

Oil is bid over $73.50, next price resistance is at $75.  Please refer to Chart 1 and 2.