Russian Rouble rallies, seen as the best preforming currency after its 'sanctions' crash March 2022. Are sanctions on Russia working? Outflows and Russian safe havens could be Czechoslovakia and Hungary. Putin could still be holding cards on Oil and Gas. Germany may fold.

(Chart 1)

(Chart 2)

Are sanctions against Russia working consistently?  Probably not.   Russia has have internal food an energy markets to which they have a monopoly on, the West has blown hard on the SWIFT/banking sanctions, but there are other ways around interbank transfers and Crypto isn't one of them.  The Russian Rouble has since rallied above its 0.072 lows in March 2022 after their invasion of Ukraine,  rallying significantly  to 0.146 April 2022 via the Futures market.   Ironically it is the best preforming currency in the world at this point in time, despite economically Russia maybe turning into a basket case, as its Central Bank has implemented Capital Controls to stem the outflow of converted-to-foreign currencies out of Russia to friendly states, as a store of value, allowing only $10,000US as an outflow.  Which essentially has Russia turning an illiquid market to a liquid market,  since the March 31st capital controls (noted on Chart 1) the Russian Central Bank has since lifted the outflow requirement to $50,000US.  The Rouble is now being offered at 0.140 after the Central Bank decision to allow outflows to be $40K larger.

Where are these Russian outflows heading?  Maybe into the Czech Koruna and Hungarian Forint.   Note the overlay above (Chart 2), showing the divergence of the Koruna and the Rouble (white arrows), with the Koruna now picking up bids in lieu of Russians able to buy 'friendly' foreign currencies and Koruna, like the Hungarian Forint is one of them.  Also refer to the separate pane chart beneath, shows the Forint also bid, as you can see an uptick in buying in conjunction with the Koruna. 

Can the West/European Union and the U.S. slam the Rouble back down again?  While messing with the Russian Central Bank capital controls?  Only with sanctions on Czechoslovakia (not part of the EU) and Hungary, to which both country's leaders are somewhat allies with Putin and it could be Putin that will test the mantle of his 'Friendly' states.   The other option is to completely ban Russian oil and gas, to which Germany has heavily invested in and may take an economic shock from hell on a major ban of Russian gas.

Allowing the Rouble to rally as hard as it did after the Western sanctions, show's that Russian/Putin have been able to ride it out economically despite the problematic Russian military campaign.