Crude prices are now sitting comfortably above $83 pb, a perfect storm brewing for energy costs, extreme weather, collapsed oil stocks in U.s. and geopolitical: Russia/China/middle east. Russian natural gas being stockpiled by the U.K., like no tomorrow.

(Chart 1)

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which is the preferred measure of inflation as opposed to the CPI, has come in stuck at 4.2%.   Although inflation measures via statistical numbering via government departments is and always will be a flawed metric, the issue is that inflation has been persistently trending above 5%, as an average percentage point over a year-to-date period.  The flaws in CPI and PCE are related to volatility and rounding off issues over a short time frame.  Inflation should be measured and released quarterly to the market, not monthly.  Regardless, you would know from your paycheck on an average weekly income, that after all your overheads have been paid for, you'll be left with a couple of hundred $ (maybe) in the bank per week.  And your purchasing power, has all but gone to hell.    

The issue is rising energy costs, more so crude prices that are now at 9 month highs, sitting above its $84 price resistance.   Oil, Nat Gas futures and electricity all have a correlating relationship, particularly when energy cycles become tighter, such as now, with war, climate change, extreme weather and inflation, the feedback loop is undeniable.  Please refer to chart 1, with Natural gas prices (below pane) bid with oil.  However, Nat gas has been heavily underwritten and stockpiled by governments globally, with Russia still sending its Gas into Europe (U.K. gobbling up the majority), via Ukraine.  The underwrite on Gas prices are its 'price controls', which at this point in time are indefinite.  Thus, Gas prices struggle to move begin its very tight trading range, please refer to these posts.