Is the West becoming too overconfident with its Sanctions on Russian oil ala the looming oil price 'cap'. Russia could cut its wheat and oil exports from the West entirely.

The oil price has crashed through all its price supports and looks like it could fall back further into its December 2021 trading ranges at 78 and 71, 69.  pre the Russian invasion of Ukraine  (please refer the green horizontal lines).  The West is probably over confident with its sanctions on Russia, particularly  the soon-to-be cap on the Russian oil price to which the market maybe position itself in anticipation that Russia will be forced to discount its oil exports.  But, for a war machine that relies on food (wheat) and oil exports as a fuel to drive its aggression, one should not discount Russia's counter economic-warfare of freezing its entire wheat and oil/gas exports to the West.   

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“There once was a mouse who lived in a tavern. One night the mouse found a leaky barrel of beer, and he drank all he could hold. When the mouse had finished, he sat up, twirled his whiskers, and looked around arrogantly. “Now then,” he said, “where’s that damned cat?” 

Ernest Shackleton 

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