Could China's first recession ever, turn a global stagflation storm into a deep recession?
Could China's first recession ever, turn a global stagflation storm into a deep recession? Dr Copper has collapsed spectacularly despite the commodity complex and the oil price still holding up as inflated costs. Copper's snapback after the reflation trade lead by a trillion dollar + stimulus splurge that the global economy embarked on in 2020 at the height of the pandemic, has shown up how bad the Chinese economy has become. China bears have long called the Chinese property bust, asChina has maintained one of the most indebted property markets un the world, with cracks appearing throughout 2021 an 2022, they, the Chinese have followed the West's playbook on debt restructuring, 'bad' debt funds and plethora of other ways of passing debt around to extended lifelines to developers that should have gone bust - which has only exasperated the problem.
The day of reckoning is probably here for the Chinese property sector and broader economy.
The chart above shows Copper futures price at $3.24 (white line), heading towards 2020 lows at 2.80. Baseline chart is WTI (oil) holding above $86, with the Commodity Index sticking around $35

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