Oil closes in on $77pB, resistance at $78. Market is pricing in a below 3% inflation report hence the Fed will start cutting rates in May 2024. Cheap credit and hope overflows, as stocks are now in bubble territory. Cyclical is leading Growth in a inflation stuck economy. The market is trying to ignore and price out a broader conflict in the Middle East. Double sided U.S. diplomacy only bought some time. Be aware, the "Ides of March" loom.

Some prices are going down, some process are going up.  Overall Inflation is stuck.  With rhymes adside, which every way you look at it, if  we were slightly deflationary we would see oil under $50 pre barrel, obviously this is not the case.  With Growth (speculative) stocks leading Value (cyclical) stocks, you would be forgiven to think that the Federal Reserve won the inflation fight, and now America is facing a soft landing ala mild recession.  Hence, speculation pouring into Tech stocks on the hope of cheaper credit.  This is simple not the case at all.  With CPI due on the 13th January, expectations are of a sideways print at 2.9% from 3.4% (y/o/y), with revisions all over the place.  Price pressures via the ISM PMI surveys (showing NO U.S. recession or downturn) are moving upward, which indicates the inflation incline has returned, this would be energy inflation being passed onto the consumer.  Of course, the main issue here is unemployment is at all time lows.  The Fed cutting rates in May 2024 is crazy talk, more so to do with the transfixion of the current bull market, i.e the NASDAQ now in bubble territory.

Also, there is a war in the Middle East.

Mustn't forget that, please refer to the above chart.