Oil is bid over $73, as Hezbollah probes Israel's missile defense shields with a larger than usual drone attack. Will Israel preemptively launch a massive attack on Lebanon? And will Iran, then attack Israel?

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Who will blink first?  After Hezbollah launched a massive drone strike on Northern Israel, causing casualties, apparently from a misfired Israeli missile intercepting system, which could be  Hezbollah probing Israel for a larger scale missile attack on Israel's cities.  The oil price is moving off its 3 month lows of $72 on the news of Hezbollah/Israel tensions, which has to do with smaller reserve drawdowns from the U.S. refineries, which indicates less demand, in similarity to China's deflationary recession (also seen in their oil/fuel markets).  Where the market in a futures inspired move, sold stocks off dramatically on recession fears and has since recovered from its losses, as we may be facing a stagflation economy rather than an deflationary China 'syndrome', due to America's high employment rate and higher GDP, of course this could change dramatically if there is a deflationary economic crash of sorts.  But, this would be an oil shock, if a full blown war in the Middle East does occur, and the Straits of Hormuz are blockaded by Iran, and a direct military engagement between Israel and Iran occurs.

Oil is bid over $73, moving off its lows of $72, with a 'war' projection of $78 and $80 

Please refer to the above Chart.

*Bonus, Chart shows the 3 months lows of -6.66%