Will China attack Taiwan shortly? Can the West impose sanctions on China's manufacturing sector, banks and everything else? Is Ukraine and Taiwan the new Cold War 2 frontlines?

 

As discussed in the post, China has now fully surrounded Taiwan with military hardware, which includes ships and aircraft.  The key difference with the Russian invasion of Ukraine earlier this year, China may attack without warning and mostly certainly, not waiting for a massive military buildup that Russia tried to do, while attempting to intimidate Ukraine, in which Putin underestimated the amount of antitank weapons the Ukraine army had in anticipating Putin's tank lead invasion.  Obviously, China will attack from the sea and air.   

China can hold the bluff over the West, in relation to sanctions as much as Russia has, to which Putin has played around with Europe's dependency on Russian gas, therefor pushing up energy prices for central Europe.   China is essentially the factory for the world, which relies on massive inflows of foreign capital via investments banks trading within the Chinese economy, which in turn supports their main industry: manufacturing.  Any widespread sanctions and/or boycotts on Chinese products will hit the world in a further inflation storm.

Can China attack Taiwan without the West imposing sanctions on its exports?

Map:   Chinese military exercises around Taiwan from the 4th August to the 8th August

Chart 1:  Is the Taiwan stock futures with the Chinese SSE Composite Index, vertical lines indicates the dates of the Chinese military drills around Taiwan