Oil remains in its $75 and $78 trading range. Awaiting OPEC decision, although it could already be priced in to the current price. Topped out at $78 as OPEC postpones decision till the 30th Nov. Eyes remain on the Middle East.

The oil price remains, as noted with my analysis on 20/11, in its trading range of $75 and $78, please refer to the above chart.  This sideways trading indicates two things, 1.  The oil market is uncertain (*sarcasm* re: OPEC postponing its production cut decision till the 30/11) 2. One cannot rule out an oil shock.   And it is the equity markets which have very much detached from reality within the context that the Central Banks will begin to cut rates in 2024.  This, as mentioned numerous times, cannot happen if the oil price is trading above $70.  $40 to $50 is acceptable and we may never see that again.  Unless we get another pandemic, lockdowns etc.  Then we'll have a crushing deflationary environment.  Deflation remains allusive, stagflation is not.   England and Germany are already tasting the bitterness of stagflation with their economies.  The U.S. is hanging on by a thread with the highest employment numbers in 40 years this side of a recession, based solely on the bloated service sector.

And if unemployment does tick up significantly in 2024, the Fed will be watching the oil price to begin its rate cuts.  Alas, an economic tightrope. 

Regardless, all eyes on the Israel/Hamas conflict.