Wall Street and the Federal Reserve are caught in the headlights of a 'looming' recession within the U.S., which may end up to be one of the worst mispricing of risk in recent history. Oil falls $5 or down 3% on a China and U.S. slowdown, but prices out geopolitical risk ala a major conflict between Iran and Israel.


Astounding if you think about it, that is because inflation, as an economic threat, was written out of financial academia and obsessively replaced with deflation.  Let alone stagflation, which some economists alarmingly believe is a myth.  

U.S GDP for Q2 came in at 2.8% over Q1 at 1.4% refer to Bureau of Economic Analysis:  bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Very good article by Barron's on the controversial inflation gauges used to set interest rates in the U.S.  barrons.com/articles/inflation-cpi-measure-history-c8a0b6b1

And:

  • Blinken said to tell US allies Iran could attack Israel within next 24 to 48 hours - Times of Israel
Not a recession trade (just yet).  Just a good ole panic and a messy profit take on global stock indexes.

Comments