“Inflation and the Finite endgame.” Sand shortage and global destabilization. (A.Glass July 26, 2021)

 

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There is resource which 85% contributes to all mining projects, it is also the second most valuable asset in the world next to water, this commodity is what we all take for granted, it is  the grains of sand and we running out of it.  In this series, Inflation and the Finite Endgame, we have looked at the various commodities that are needed to sustain a productive society and our technology dependency.  What was once an affordable and seemed to be in plentiful supply is now actually becoming a widespread scarcity issue, sand has risen in price from $7 US Dollars to just under $10 per metric ton. These price rises are evident enough that the commodity is now becoming harder to source and produce.

Yet, sand everywhere right?  The answer is both yes and no, the construction industry requires textured sand grains as opposed to the smooth wind blasted sand from deserts and this more angular grain is used in an aggregate composite which is added to concrete to give it bulk. Originating from quarries, sea and river beds.    With property and development booms throughout the world, the main culprit in over utilising excavation for sand has been China, in referencing Vaclav Smil, a historian who studies industrial consumption of the last 100 years, has estimated that between 1901 and 2000 the U.S used 4.5 gigatons of sand as in its use of industry concrete, China, in just 4 years from 2011-2013 has consumed 6.6 gigatons of sand in its extraordinary rise of urban development. Historically unprecedented anywhere else in the world.

What was thought as infinite, sand is now very much a finite resource, it is now the costs of extracting sand for construction that is beginning to balloon.   Because the data is sporadic in sand mining, the attributed costs can be seen in project blowing out their budgets and according to a paper compiled for Scienedirect in conjunction with academic publisher Cellpress, it sates that  as example of costs blowout from a lack of aggregate; the Denver International Airport project increased substantially, with an over-budget that went from $2.8 billion to $4.8 billion after completion of the word in 1995 part due to an inability to assess readily available sand, gravel, and crushed rock.

And as in all commodity shortages, prices start ascending upwards as scarcity takes hold.   This is turn creates an insatiability which is not just confined to the marketplace but to society as a whole. A feedback loop of destabilization.