Crude price maintains its ascension. Holding above its support of $87 with $90 pb within sight. No recession in China, the economy is stagnating as a debt behemoth. Japan is now at the cusp of stagflation. Germany and the U.K. are aready there.

Oil continues to make gains, holding above its price supports of $84 and the psychological $80 (red horizontal lines) on its way to $90 per barrel.  Oil is and always will be a hedge against inflation, as is the U.S. Dollar, but with Central Banks still moving back and forth between jawboning the market and appeasing the market in relation to its rate cycle, the USD sells off and we see speculation roar back to life.  Essentially, Germany and the U.K. are already in stagflation, with the U.S. holding with their bellowing service sector employment, which by its definition are the jobs that will get struck off in an instant, are clinging on for dear life.  If inflation falls further with core inflation still elevated (energy costs and food), I would argue that it was the after effect of Biden's Strategic Petroleum Release release in March of 2022, which had a reverse stimulus giving Americans some spending power (cheaper gas prices), all the while energy costs dropped.  And Biden cannot draw from the SPR in the near term, simply because America's oil stocks are drying up.  Inflation is still with us.  How far record low unemployment can hold is the question.  And it has to be reminded that $trillions of stimulus monies are still floating around the global economy, from the 2020 pandemic money print from hell. Which is all but draining out going into the end of 2023. 

And China, maybe stagnating rather than deflating, while the private and public sector are holding mountains of debt, like Japan.  However, Japan's basket case economy, is now facing inflation.  As it  imbeds itself into Japanese society.  

Therefore the oil price reveals how OPEC, including China's economic situation can offer a reliable bellwether for the global economy.  In all of its distortion.