Oil price to resume its ascent, closing in on $113 a barrel. Now an inflation hedge, while Russia continues to fuel its invasion, China hordes and OPEC doesn't increase output.





My prediction is for oil to retain above the $108 and$ 110 support/s and climb back towards $115, in three days settling above $113.   Technically oil and commodities are still a hedge against inflation regardless of the war/invasion of Ukraine by Russia.  Unless the Federal Reserve sets a 1% rate hike in March 2022 and the U.S. Dollar rallies, the market in the meantime has already priced in a 0.25% rate rise.  

But, there are serval concerning factors for oil to continue towards $150:

Russia will maintain its obliteration of Ukraine with everything they have got until they have colonized the country.   Thus, Russia will be completely isolated by the World, except for China.   To which China will begin to horde oil again, causing a tightening in the oil market.  OPEC is not going to flood the world with oil, as production costs are rising.  While Russia with partial bans on its exports, will start to use more of its domestic oil/fuel.  That is war and inflation for you, chews through oil stockpiles very quickly.  

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Trade will caution.

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