Oil is holding, despite China lockdown. Putin 'put' at $100 on only Rubles to be accepted for oil and gas. The "doomsday" hedge gold has sold off with U.S. Dollar demand. All eyes on NATO.
With Putin's invasion of Ukraine a logistical and chaotic mess, despite overwhelming firepower. The Ukraine armed with Western antitank and antiaircraft weaponry have caused havoc over the Russian forces, the question remains what will Putin do? For now it seems like he will continue with aerial, ship (cruise missiles) and artillery to flatten Ukrainian towns and cities. But, a ground war will probably wage on between Russian and Ukrainian troops. Despite these assumptions, the Fog of War has descended and we can only second guess the outcome of this terrible conflict.
The above Chart (1) shows the futures oil price and gold price compared, as noted in this post, oil, although it has sold off on Shanghai/China lockdown, it did not collapse, as bids were found above $108, even with the $110 support breached. Oil will probably stay well bid on the Putin 'put' at $100 via the fact that Russia will only accept Rubles as the currency to purchase oil, which has sent gas and oil upward.
However, it is gold that took a hit, collapsing from $1957 on the 22th of March to $1933, currently trying to regain its $1937 support.
Chart 2 shows the reason why; with the U.S. Dollar, seen here as the DXY, super bid, knocking gold down, now trading in a declining range with $1924 support looming, yet, as noted with this chart the futures contract for oil is still in demand. Holding at $106 with bids over $107.
Yes, gold is still the doomsday hedge as opposed to an inflation hedge, the U.S. Dollar is, but, it is all about Ukraine, Putin, Biden and NATO.
Peace🙏
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