Bank of Japan for the first time in seven years opens up the 10 YR yield, taking interest rates out of negative territory. The YEN and stocks rally so does the oil price. Full blown stagflation was held at bay in 2022 on massive oil market interventions. Can it be achieved in 2023?
(Chart 1)
Bank of Japan (BoJ) for the first time in seven years has opened up the 10 YR yield curve into a trading between 0.5% and 0.25%, which was done without any indication to the market from their Central Bank, it was a shock move which blew up the carry trades such as the AUD and EUR. Jamming the Japan 10 YR yield up to 0.479%. sending it out of negative territory which it has been in since 2016. The shock and awe is probably due to stagflation erupting throughout Asia, held slightly at bay with the massive oil market interventions by the West, ala America's massive Strategic Petroleum Release (SPR) since May 2022 and the G7 oil cap on Russia. However, the U.S. is suffering the worst declines in oil stocks since 1984 and with Russian export bans on its oil and natural gas, the West, particularly Asia which is a net importer is going struggle filling the gap of oil imports from 'friendly, middle Eastern countries. Refer to Chart 1.
BoJ intervention caused the U.S. Dollar to sell and thus stock markets rallied and so did the oil price, rallying crude from 75 to 78. Which has in turn sent a wave of energy inflation back around the world. Refer to Chart 2.
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