Self explanatory chart of the DXY (USD) and the oil price. Showing the start of 2022 risk aversion with oil and the USD bid, decoupling at the tail end of 2022 ala the Fed's rate hikes. Oil began to sell and the USD was nicely bid.

Question:   Will the Fed allow the oil price to regain higher prices again against the U.S. Dollar?  If they pause rates this week, we may see a USD collapse and oil regain bids again,  moving up to its $70 and $80 ranges.  Thus, energy inflation returns to early 2022 levels.

I'm calling a 0.25% rate increase this week