China won't tighten its economic policy on looming stagflation . Chinese 10 YR yields have dropped, while Copper and Oil are bid, showing that inflation and a slowing economy are simultaneously occurring. China hyperinflation and on a war footing re: Taiwan?




Can China stave off stagflation?  No.  In fact its more then likely that China will set off the stagflation wave more than not.   While the Federal Reserve embarking on a 1.00% rate normalization, which on the whole is probably too low to tackle the worst inflation in four decades.  Other Central Banks are tardy on the inflation call, like the Peoples Bank of China which is stuck in a conundrum.  With the U.S. Dollar appreciating and Chinese bonds yield falling, rather than climbing, please refer to the Chart above, with the green line Chinese 10 YR yields, the red line the WTI oil price and the white line the Copper price, the four green arrows represent the widening gap between yields and the Copper price, indicating that a slowing economy and falling rates is pointing to stagflation.   Still, the largest consumer of raw materials which is China is having a slight dent in both the oil and copper prices, refer to the blue vertical trading lines when March 28th,  when China began locking down Shanghai, copper and oil sold of dramatically, yet didn't crash on the news of China's lockdowns.  

Chart on separate pane, shows, within the same trading lines, the Shanghai Composite also trading lower on a slowing Chinese economy.

China has indicated that it won't tighten economic policy, but rather print money.   This maybe the first country in economic history that will allow inflation to eat into their citizens assets, rather than containing inflation.  A terrible experiment.   Particularly when oil and mining exploration costs are going up.   We may never see the oil price fall further than $90/$100 a barrel, unless the world hits another pandemic.  

So, will China go into hyperinflation?    

All eyes on Taiwan.   

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