No recession for America. DOW at all time hghs, and retail sales booming. The Producer Price Index, which is a directly better measure than the CPI and PCE, shows prices going up not down. Yet, Wall Street Banks ala their economists are screaming out for a rate cut before the U.S. election in November 2024. A confused mess.

There is no recession looming for the American economy, although it is probably stagnating with inflation, despite Wall Street, and the banks calling for rate cuts (even though they are aware of the consequences), which could be a frightening reality or disillusionary optimistic, or both.

The above chart shows the DOW futures at all time highs over 41000 in tandem with two very important indicators when measuring the so called resilient U.S consumer, retail sales (orange line) are still high and the Producer Price Index (light green line) showing no fall in producer prices.

Below pane shows U.S. employment, which despite slight downward revisions over the last quarter of 2024, is still the highest in over 30 years  CPI and PCE are showing inflation coming down, but of course not food and energy.  So, no masses of unemployment at this point in time.  But, confusion is abound, with all its messy allure.  

Below news report headlines are from from June and July 2024: 

• US retail sales report showcases consumer, economic resilience - Reuters

• U.S. economic growth slows as consumers tighten their belts - CBS

• US Producer Prices Move Higher as Service Provider Margins Climb - Bloomberg

• Rate Cuts Could Make Things Worse for Banks Before They Help - WSJ