U.S. Unemployment rate remains at 20 year lows, while inflation and rising prices (energy/crude) remain high. Can the Fed deliver two mandates at once, lower unemployment and low inflation, without triggering stagflation? FEDwatch has a 76% chance that the Fed will cut rates in September 2024. Fatally ambitious?.

Can the Federal Reserve single handedly herald in full blown stagflation?  This is a distinct possibility, with the markets screaming for a rate cut with the CME FEDWTACH tool pricing in an 76% chance that the Fed will cut rates by 0.25% in September 2024.  The Consumer Price Index and the Fed's favourite Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, have declined since the inflation spike in June 2022, yet remain 'sticky' above the Fed's target range of 2% inflation, at 3.3%.  But excesses and high prices are still abound, with unemployment very slowly ticking up, but still trending at 20 year lows as opposed to its historic 40 year lows in 2023; rising unemployment and inflation are lingering as a bellwether, that a rate cut is not without uncertainty.  Not to mention high energy/crude prices.  

Please refer to the above chart and it price notes of the U.S. unemployment rate and Inflation rate back from 1948 to 2024.