OIl climbs back over $72 per barrel, as Houthi Yemen rebels shutdown Red Sea shipping. China could already be in a recession. Can oil hold above $70 pb? The Fed may hold off on rate cuts in 2024, if oil does not drop under $70.

The collapse in oil prices has nothing to do with U.S. interest rates, U.S. dollar or American slowdown, which is far from going into recession.  In fact, China, which is the reason for the collapse in the oil price, is probably already in a recession.  It's only because Chinese authorities don't disclose all that much statistical 'truth' to the market, rather it is read elsewhere.  And since China also will not disclose Chinese unemployment rates, the drop in oil price is most likely showing the Chinese economy, the 2nd largest in the world, sinking into what could be a deep recession.  

If this is the case, then the markets may be justified pricing rate cuts in 2024, but the problem is, with that prediction, is the Israeli invasion of Gaza. Which was never going to be a quick and precision warfare campaign in riddening Israel of Hamas.  Instead Israel has opted for the Total destruction of the Gaza populus, in turn they, Israel, has set off Yemen and Hezbollah (Lebanon), who seem intent in drawing Israel into conflict with both Middle Eastern countries.   And the Houthi Yemen militia is not playing the skirmish warfare, that Hezbollah's has been doing on its border with Israel.  Instead the Houthi have been able to not only stop Red Sea shipping, but also created an default embargo on Israel that is reliant on trade moving through the Red Sea onto Israeli ports.  

Whether the U.S. or Israel plan strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen, the oil price will climb on any broader conflict in the region.  

Oil is bid over $72. Price support is at $72, resistance at $75, please refer to the above chart.