Oil collapsed through its price supports on recession fears via the 2yr and 10yr yield curve inverted. Slightly bid above the $100 Putin 'Put'. Geopolitical and supply issues loom.'

Oil collapsed spectacularly through all of its price supports from $110 to $97 on the 5th July, which was probably was lead by a HFT (High Frequency Trading i,e computers) miscalculation via the 2yr and 10yr yield inversion that occurred throughout the trading day.  Pointing to a recession. However, the price quickly gained bids above the $100 Putin 'Put', if a full blown global recession is now in sight, lead by the best indicator you can wish for which is Dr. Copper, please refer to this post, then we would have oil remain a sell, returning back to its $50 and $60 averages.  It hasn't.  Why?

Two things.

1.  Tight oil supplies remain (Geopolitical) Middle East and China consumption (net importer)

2. Russia is about to turn of gas to Europe more so Germany, (Geopolitical) Russian/Ukraine war