Do you want a $5.50 (U.S.) cup of coffee with your 'recession' or stagflation? (part 3)
As inflation is NOT falling as hard as the Federal Reserve would like, yet a 25 basis point cut in September is all but a done deal. However, markets are still tentative that the inflation fight over. Particularly the poor, everyday consumer, please refer to NY Fed survey, showing inflation slightly rising for August: newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce.html#/
As we enter the era of climate change and very unpredictable weather patterns, this in turn will affect the global economy, without a Plan B. The spillover, will be sticky prices and/or rising costs, which will be the constant. Such as the coffee price. Please refer to Chart above and price notes, as surplus coffee was shipped en masse in August, the price dropped, in turn the dry weather in Brazil and Vietnam showed no signs of abating. The price went back up.
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